Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

LALA at PHIPHI

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass

LA moneyline-198
PHI moneyline+164
SpreadLA -3.5
Total42.5

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 11:46 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceLA 58%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.1points, both teams
Leo marginLA by 2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Matthew Stafford LA QB1 7.936.20.93 260
Jalen Hurts PHI QB1 7.128.80.93 175

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kyren Williams LA RB1 4.813.31.13 70
Saquon Barkley PHI RB1 4.212.913 54
Blake Corum LA RB2 4.79.21.13 47
Tank Bigsby PHI RB2 4.64.613 22

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Puka Nacua LA WR2 9.210.70.91 96
Davante Adams LA WR1 10.39.10.93 91
Dontayvion Wicks PHI WR1 114.30.93 45
Makai Lemon PHI WR2 6.730.93 22
Konata Mumpfield LA WR3 5.230.93 18
Darius Cooper PHI WR3 4.21.40.93 9
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

LA Game status

3 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Terrance FergusonTE Ankle
  • Out Aaron DonaldDT Back
  • Out Jaylen WatsonCB Shoulder
  • Questionable Colby ParkinsonTE Knee / Shoulder
  • Questionable Josaiah StewartLB Groin
PHI Game status

6 out

  • Out DeVonta SmithWR Hamstring
  • Out Marquise BrownWR Ankle
  • Out Dallas GoedertTE Knee
  • Out Fred JohnsonT Knee
  • Out Zack BaunLB Concussion
  • Out Marcus EppsS Groin

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LA This season PHI
62 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 51
62 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 48
59 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 50
61 Overall 49
QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55 Last season QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LA Per game, this season PHI
1.33Interceptions thrown1.33
1.00Interceptions caught0.00
0.67Fumbles lost0.33
0.67Fumbles forced1.00
1.67Takeaways1.00
2.00Giveaways1.67
-0.33Net turnover margin-0.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LA Offense PHI
+0.178EPA per dropback0.000
+0.8Completion % over expected+4.0
2.2%Interception rate2.7%
4.0%Sack rate taken7.2%
-0.044Rush EPA per carry+0.001
7.6%Explosive play rate5.5%
LA Defense PHI
-0.044EPA allowed per play-0.020
5.12Yards allowed per play5.23
3.0%Sack rate2.8%
1.6%Interception rate forced0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LA, right is PHI.

LA This season PHI
3Games3
295Pass yards/g206.7
133.7Rush yards/g110.7
6Passing TD5
4Interceptions thrown4
174Pass yards allowed/g198
101.3Rush yards allowed/g127.3
3Interceptions forced0
LA Last season PHI
282.2Pass yards/g203.7
124.7Rush yards/g118.2
52Passing TD27
9Interceptions thrown7
242.8Pass yards allowed/g209.3
110.1Rush yards allowed/g121.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford367/111 60.4%872290.7 6 / 47.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams338 2145.61
Blake Corum328 1485.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Davante Adams WR13 18/2962.1%358 119.32
Konata Mumpfield WR23 5/1145.5%105 351
Tyler Higbee TE2 10/1376.9%74 371
PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts356/87 64.4%620206.7 5 / 37.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley334 1745.10
Tank Bigsby314 362.61

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeVonta Smith WR13 19/2770.4%235 78.31
Dontayvion Wicks WR23 9/1560%179 59.71
Dallas Goedert TE2 5/771.4%81 40.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford20454/716 63.4%5643282.2 52 / 97.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams20303 14354.712
Blake Corum20171 8655.16

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Puka Nacua WR119 153/20873.6%2047 107.712
Davante Adams WR217 71/13951.1%974 57.315
Colby Parkinson TE17 51/7072.9%560 32.99
PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts17314/489 64.2%3392199.5 26 / 66.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley17306 12464.17
Tank Bigsby1562 3635.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
A.J. Brown WR116 81/12863.3%1028 64.37
DeVonta Smith WR218 85/12468.5%1078 59.94
Dallas Goedert TE16 64/8971.9%624 3912

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Davante Adams (LA, 50%) and Kyren Williams (LA, 38%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LA Leo’s chance
  1. Davante Adams WR1 50% no TD
  2. Kyren Williams RB1 38% scored 2
  3. Puka Nacua WR2 33% scored
PHI Leo’s chance
  1. Tank Bigsby RB2 22% no TD
  2. Saquon Barkley RB1 21% no TD
  3. Dontayvion Wicks WR1 21% no TD

Final result

LA 24 – 20 PHI

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LA
Matthew Stafford QB 32/51317 yds0 TD2 INT
Kyren Williams RB 16 car80 yds2 TD10 rec, 67 yds
Blake Corum RB 5 car14 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Puka Nacua WR 1 car2 yds1 TD9 rec, 125 yds
Puka Nacua WR 9/12125 yds0 TD
Tyler Higbee TE 5/667 yds0 TD
Kyren Williams RB 10/1367 yds0 TD
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB 12/2793 yds2 TD0 INT
Tank Bigsby RB 14 car55 yds0 TD
Will Shipley RB 6 car23 yds0 TD
Saquon Barkley RB 2 car8 yds0 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Darius Cooper WR 3/733 yds2 TD
Makai Lemon WR 3/627 yds0 TD
Dontayvion Wicks WR 3/518 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerLA 58%—LA wonNO PICK
Total points44.142.544OVER · RIGHT
MarginLA by 2LA −3.5LA by 4PHI +3.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jalen Hurts PHI 191.5175 UNDER 93 82 Less efficient (3.4 vs 7.1 yds/att) RIGHT
Matthew Stafford LA 251.5260 no side 317 57 More attempts (51 vs 36.2 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Saquon Barkley PHI 68.554 UNDER 8 46 Fewer carries (2 vs 12.9 expected) RIGHT
Blake Corum LA 39.547 OVER 14 33 Fewer carries (5 vs 9.2 expected) WRONG
Tank Bigsby PHI 8.522 OVER 55 33 More carries (14 vs 4.6 expected) RIGHT
Kyren Williams LA 59.570 OVER 80 10 More carries (16 vs 13.3 expected) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Davante Adams LA 68.591 OVER 32 59 Less efficient (3.6 vs 10.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Puka Nacua LA 73.596 OVER 125 29 More efficient (10.4 vs 9.2 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Dontayvion Wicks PHI 56.545 UNDER 18 27 Less efficient (3.6 vs 11 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Darius Cooper PHI 20.59 UNDER 33 24 More targets (7 vs 1.4 expected) WRONG
Konata Mumpfield LA —18 no side 7 11 Less efficient (2.3 vs 5.2 yds/tgt)
Makai Lemon PHI 35.522 UNDER 27 5 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.