Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

JAXJAX at CINCIN

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

JAX moneyline+124
CIN moneyline-148
SpreadCIN -2.5
Total51.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 11:40 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceJAX 57%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.8points, both teams
Leo marginJAX by 6.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Joe Burrow CIN QB1 7.134.713 247
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB1 7.429.41.13 232

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Chase Brown CIN RB1 4.315.60.93 64
Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB1 4.412.10.93 52
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB2 4.47.30.93 31
Samaje Perine CIN RB2 4.53.90.93 17

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jakobi Meyers JAX WR3 16.15.41.13 99
Tee Higgins CIN WR2 10.47.213 80
Parker Washington JAX WR1 9.671.13 77
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR1 6.89.913 72
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR2 8.651.13 51
Dohnte Meyers CIN WR3 7.92.413 23
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

JAX Game status

3 questionable

  • Questionable Albert RegisDT Elbow
  • Questionable Christian BraswellCB Knee
  • Questionable Montaric BrownCB Hamstring
CIN Game status

2 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Colbie YoungWR Knee
  • Out Kyle DuggerS Quadricep
  • Questionable Dalton RisnerG Knee
  • Questionable B.J. HillDT Achilles
  • Questionable Swayze BozemanLB Groin
  • Questionable Bryan CookS Ankle

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

JAX This season CIN
61 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 55
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 54
63 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 44
62 Overall 49
QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62 Last season QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

JAX Per game, this season CIN
0.67Interceptions thrown0.33
1.33Interceptions caught0.33
0.00Fumbles lost0.33
1.00Fumbles forced1.33
2.33Takeaways1.67
0.67Giveaways0.67
+1.67Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

JAX Offense CIN
+0.151EPA per dropback+0.056
+2.7Completion % over expected+2.1
2.4%Interception rate1.9%
5.8%Sack rate taken5.8%
+0.025Rush EPA per carry-0.017
5.5%Explosive play rate5.6%
JAX Defense CIN
-0.087EPA allowed per play+0.039
5.57Yards allowed per play6.24
3.5%Sack rate4.1%
2.2%Interception rate forced0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is JAX, right is CIN.

JAX This season CIN
3Games3
205.3Pass yards/g247.7
119.3Rush yards/g91.3
7Passing TD6
2Interceptions thrown1
246Pass yards allowed/g287
91.3Rush yards allowed/g95.7
4Interceptions forced1
JAX Last season CIN
235.2Pass yards/g249.6
117.2Rush yards/g93.6
32Passing TD36
14Interceptions thrown17
233.7Pass yards allowed/g245.6
85.2Rush yards allowed/g147.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence354/81 66.7%616205.3 7 / 27.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bhayshul Tuten343 2044.72
Chris Rodriguez Jr.320 733.71

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR13 15/2365.2%221 73.72
Brian Thomas Jr. WR23 7/1258.3%88 29.30
Brenton Strange TE3 7/1070%72 241
CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB55

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow373/103 70.9%743247.7 6 / 17.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown349 19741
Samaje Perine310 353.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ja'Marr Chase WR13 18/2572%185 61.73
Tee Higgins WR23 14/2360.9%244 81.31
Mike Gesicki TE2 8/1080%115 57.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence18359/590 60.8%4214234.1 32 / 147.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne18270 11744.37
Bhayshul Tuten1687 3584.15

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR117 65/10760.7%954 56.16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR215 50/9353.8%728 48.53
Brenton Strange TE13 48/6573.8%549 42.23
CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow8173/259 66.8%1809226.1 17 / 57

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown17232 10194.46
Samaje Perine1584 3824.53

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ja'Marr Chase WR116 125/18567.6%1412 88.38
Tee Higgins WR215 59/9860.2%846 56.411
Mike Gesicki TE12 28/4266.7%307 25.62

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, 50%) and Parker Washington (JAX, 40%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
JAX Leo’s chance
  1. Parker Washington WR1 40% no TD
  2. Bhayshul Tuten RB1 37% no TD
  3. Jakobi Meyers WR3 36% no TD
CIN Leo’s chance
  1. Ja'Marr Chase WR1 50% no TD
  2. Tee Higgins WR2 40% no TD
  3. Chase Brown RB1 28% no TD

Final result

JAX 22 – 17 CIN

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

JAX
Trevor Lawrence QB 18/23227 yds1 TD0 INT
Bhayshul Tuten RB 17 car73 yds0 TD2 rec, 18 yds
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 6 car35 yds1 TD
Parker Washington WR 1 car3 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Brenton Strange TE 7/895 yds0 TD
Josh Cameron WR 2/242 yds0 TD
Jakobi Meyers WR 3/433 yds0 TD
CIN
Joe Burrow QB 39/54428 yds1 TD2 INT
Chase Brown RB 9 car10 yds0 TD11 rec, 71 yds
Samaje Perine RB 3 car7 yds0 TD
Tee Higgins WR 11/16157 yds0 TD
Dohnte Meyers WR 7/982 yds0 TD
Chase Brown RB 11/1171 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerJAX 57%—JAX wonNO PICK
Total points46.851.539UNDER · RIGHT
MarginJAX by 6.7CIN −2.5JAX by 5JAX +2.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Joe Burrow CIN 269.5247 UNDER 428 181 More attempts (54 vs 34.7 expected) WRONG
Trevor Lawrence JAX 261.5232 UNDER 227 5 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chase Brown CIN 58.564 OVER 10 54 Less efficient (1.1 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Bhayshul Tuten JAX 57.552 UNDER 73 21 More carries (17 vs 12.1 expected) WRONG
Samaje Perine CIN 13.517 OVER 7 10 Less efficient (2.3 vs 4.5 yds/carry) WRONG
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX 17.531 OVER 35 4 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tee Higgins CIN 62.580 OVER 157 77 More targets (16 vs 7.2 expected) RIGHT
Parker Washington JAX 77.577 no side 7 70 Fewer targets (3 vs 7 expected) NO LEAN
Jakobi Meyers JAX 41.599 OVER 33 66 Less efficient (8.3 vs 16.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Dohnte Meyers CIN —23 no side 82 59 More targets (9 vs 2.4 expected)
Ja'Marr Chase CIN 86.572 UNDER 27 45 Fewer targets (3 vs 9.9 expected) RIGHT
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 27.551 OVER 17 34 Fewer targets (2 vs 5 expected) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.