Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

NYJNYJ at CHICHI

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

NYJ moneyline+160
CHI moneyline-192
SpreadCHI -3.5
Total43.5

New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 3, 8:22 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCHI 71%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.5points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 11.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Geno Smith NYJ QB1 7.332.313 224
Case Keenum CHI QB1 7.132.30.91 203

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
D'Andre Swift CHI RB1 4.716.60.93 73
Braelon Allen NYJ RB1 4.212.713 55
Kyle Monangai CHI RB2 4.99.80.93 45

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR1 8.49.213 79
Rome Odunze CHI WR3 10.55.80.93 60
Luther Burden III CHI WR1 85.90.93 46
Kalif Raymond CHI WR2 9.54.50.93 42
Isaiah Williams NYJ WR2 6.52.713 21
Sterling Shepard NYJ WR3 4.9311 18
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

NYJ Game status

5 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Breece HallRB Quadricep
  • Out Adonai MitchellWR Finger
  • Out Mason TaylorTE Thumb
  • Out Dylan ParhamG Knee
  • Out Francisco MauigoaLB Quadricep
  • Questionable Kenyon SadiqTE Back
  • Questionable Kingsley EnagbareDE Knee
CHI Game status

5 out · 1 doubtful

  • Out Caleb WilliamsQB Hamstring
  • Out Braxton JonesT Knee
  • Out Shemar TurnerDE Knee
  • Out Noah SewellLB Achilles
  • Out Kyler GordonCB Calf
  • Doubtful Cam LewisS Hip

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NYJ This season CHI
46 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 57
43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 62
40 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 49
41 Overall 56
QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29 Last season QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYJ Per game, this season CHI
0.00Interceptions thrown0.33
0.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.33Fumbles lost0.67
1.67Fumbles forced0.67
1.67Takeaways1.67
0.33Giveaways1.00
+1.33Net turnover margin+0.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYJ Offense CHI
-0.008EPA per dropback+0.141
+2.2Completion % over expected0.0
1.5%Interception rate1.5%
9.7%Sack rate taken4.5%
-0.134Rush EPA per carry+0.042
4.7%Explosive play rate6.5%
NYJ Defense CHI
+0.060EPA allowed per play+0.022
5.44Yards allowed per play6.18
3.5%Sack rate3.8%
0.0%Interception rate forced1.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYJ, right is CHI.

NYJ This season CHI
3Games3
261Pass yards/g236
92.3Rush yards/g184.3
4Passing TD4
0Interceptions thrown1
184.7Pass yards allowed/g219
87.3Rush yards allowed/g117
0Interceptions forced3
NYJ Last season CHI
163.8Pass yards/g242.6
123.3Rush yards/g142.6
15Passing TD32
13Interceptions thrown12
226.4Pass yards allowed/g244.6
139.5Rush yards allowed/g131.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith377/102 75.5%783261 4 / 07.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall351 1633.21
Braelon Allen319 613.21

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR13 21/2777.8%243 812
Adonai Mitchell WR22 9/1560%123 61.50
Kenyon Sadiq TE3 12/1485.7%143 47.71
CHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams236/55 65.5%407203.5 2 / 17.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift354 2534.73
Kyle Monangai330 1785.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Luther Burden III WR13 15/2365.2%156 521
Kalif Raymond WR23 19/2190.5%214 71.31
Colston Loveland TE3 5/955.6%34 11.30

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41
CHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams19377/658 57.3%4560240 31 / 126.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift18255 12174.810
Kyle Monangai19190 8464.55

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rome Odunze WR114 48/10247.1%749 53.56
DJ Moore WR219 61/10061%798 428
Colston Loveland TE18 70/10765.4%906 50.36

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: D'Andre Swift (CHI, 48%) and Garrett Wilson (NYJ, 41%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NYJ Leo’s chance
  1. Garrett Wilson WR1 41% no TD
  2. Braelon Allen RB1 29% no TD
  3. Sterling Shepard WR3 11% no TD
CHI Leo’s chance
  1. D'Andre Swift RB1 48% no TD
  2. Kyle Monangai RB2 25% scored 2
  3. Rome Odunze WR3 20% no TD

Final result

NYJ 12 – 23 CHI

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NYJ
Geno Smith QB 8/15119 yds1 TD0 INT
Braelon Allen RB 14 car59 yds0 TD2 rec, 8 yds
Isaiah Williams WR 2/373 yds1 TD
Garrett Wilson WR 3/427 yds0 TD
Jelani Woods TE 1/111 yds0 TD
CHI
Tyson Bagent QB 25/34268 yds0 TD1 INT
Kyle Monangai RB 30 car146 yds2 TD1 rec, 4 yds
D'Andre Swift RB 15 car58 yds0 TD2 rec, 16 yds
Roschon Johnson RB 4 car16 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Rome Odunze WR 6/794 yds0 TD
Luther Burden III WR 4/663 yds0 TD
Colston Loveland TE 6/957 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCHI 71%—CHI wonRIGHT
Total points46.543.535OVER · WRONG
MarginCHI by 11.8CHI −3.5CHI by 11CHI −3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Geno Smith NYJ 227.5224 no side 119 105 Fewer attempts (15 vs 32.3 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kyle Monangai CHI 39.545 OVER 146 101 More carries (30 vs 9.8 expected) RIGHT
D'Andre Swift CHI 64.573 OVER 58 15 Less efficient (3.9 vs 4.7 yds/carry) WRONG
Braelon Allen NYJ 56.555 no side 59 4 On target NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Garrett Wilson NYJ 75.579 no side 27 52 Fewer targets (4 vs 9.2 expected) NO LEAN
Isaiah Williams NYJ 22.521 UNDER 73 52 More efficient (24.3 vs 6.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Kalif Raymond CHI 31.542 OVER 6 36 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.5 expected) WRONG
Rome Odunze CHI 32.560 OVER 94 34 More efficient (13.4 vs 10.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Sterling Shepard NYJ —18 no side 0 18 Fewer targets (1 vs 3 expected)
Luther Burden III CHI 46.546 no side 63 17 More efficient (10.5 vs 8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.