Week 4 · Sunday 09:30

INDIND at WASWAS

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors · grass

IND moneyline-230
WAS moneyline+190
SpreadIND -4.5
Total46.5

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 3, 8:22 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceWAS 51%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.3points, both teams
Leo marginIND by 0.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Daniel Jones IND QB1 732.21.13 241
Marcus Mariota WAS QB1 7261.12 194

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 4.7210.93 89
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS RB1 4.216.81.13 81
Kaytron Allen WAS RB2 4.45.21.12 27
Seth McGowan IND RB2 4.320.93 9

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Josh Downs IND WR1 7.76.81.13 61
Terry McLaurin WAS WR2 7.26.61.13 56
Stefon Diggs WAS WR1 76.31.13 53
Keenan Allen IND WR2 56.81.13 41
Antonio Williams WAS WR3 9.33.31.13 38
Laquon Treadwell IND WR3 10.10.81.13 13
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

IND Game status

2 questionable

  • Questionable Ashton DulinWR Ankle
  • Questionable Keenan AllenWR Not injury related - resting player / Groin
WAS Game status

4 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Jayden DanielsQB Elbow
  • Out Rachaad WhiteRB Shoulder
  • Out Sam CosmiG Concussion / Throat
  • Out Nick CrossS Illness
  • Questionable Terry McLaurinWR Hamstring
  • Questionable Percy ButlerS Concussion

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

IND This season WAS
45 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 54
52 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 50
39 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 35
45 Overall 42
QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49 Last season QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

IND Per game, this season WAS
1.00Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.67
1.00Fumbles lost0.33
0.67Fumbles forced0.67
0.67Takeaways1.33
2.00Giveaways0.33
-1.33Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

IND Offense WAS
+0.004EPA per dropback+0.051
+0.1Completion % over expected+0.6
2.8%Interception rate1.5%
5.3%Sack rate taken5.4%
+0.070Rush EPA per carry-0.025
5.3%Explosive play rate4.5%
IND Defense WAS
+0.071EPA allowed per play+0.111
6.06Yards allowed per play6.38
3.6%Sack rate3.5%
0.7%Interception rate forced0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is IND, right is WAS.

IND This season WAS
3Games3
203.7Pass yards/g184.7
103.3Rush yards/g132
3Passing TD7
3Interceptions thrown0
291Pass yards allowed/g291.7
141.3Rush yards allowed/g82
0Interceptions forced2
IND Last season WAS
240.3Pass yards/g195.8
118.1Rush yards/g134.7
25Passing TD19
14Interceptions thrown12
262.5Pass yards allowed/g257.1
101.9Rush yards allowed/g141.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones365/98 66.3%611203.7 3 / 36.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor366 2583.94
Seth McGowan36 142.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Josh Downs WR13 14/2458.3%186 620
Keenan Allen WR23 13/2065%100 33.31
Tyler Warren TE3 18/2281.8%89 29.72
WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jayden Daniels229/51 56.9%260130 3 / 05.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt347 14231
Rachaad White322 1004.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR13 13/2259.1%135 453
Terry McLaurin WR23 10/2245.5%141 471
John Bates TE2 3/475%22 110

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14
WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Marcus Mariota10139/227 61.2%1695169.5 10 / 77.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17175 8054.68
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12112 5004.56

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR116 72/9972.7%727 45.45
Terry McLaurin WR210 38/6063.3%582 58.23
Zach Ertz TE13 50/7269.4%504 38.84

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jonathan Taylor (IND, 61%) and Stefon Diggs (WAS, 47%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
IND Leo’s chance
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB1 61% scored 2
  2. Keenan Allen WR2 27% no TD
  3. Seth McGowan RB2 18% no TD
WAS Leo’s chance
  1. Stefon Diggs WR1 47% no TD
  2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB1 36% no TD
  3. Terry McLaurin WR2 29% no TD

Final result

IND 30 – 13 WAS

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

IND
Daniel Jones QB 19/34143 yds0 TD1 INT
Jonathan Taylor RB 20 car95 yds2 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Seth McGowan RB 6 car31 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Laquon Treadwell WR 5/642 yds0 TD
Tyler Warren TE 5/541 yds0 TD
Ashton Dulin WR 3/629 yds0 TD
WAS
Athan Kaliakmanis QB 15/33186 yds1 TD1 INT
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB 9 car15 yds0 TD2 rec, 35 yds
Austin Ekeler RB 4 car29 yds0 TD1 rec, 11 yds
Kaytron Allen RB 3 car1 yds0 TD
Dyami Brown WR 3/465 yds0 TD
Treylon Burks WR 1/347 yds1 TD
Stefon Diggs WR 5/935 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerWAS 51%—IND wonNO PICK
Total points51.346.543OVER · WRONG
MarginIND by 0.7IND −4.5IND by 17WAS +4.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Marcus Mariota WAS —194 no side 46 148 Fewer attempts (4 vs 26 expected)
Daniel Jones IND 219.5241 OVER 143 98 Less efficient (4.2 vs 7 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS 60.581 OVER 15 66 Fewer carries (9 vs 16.8 expected) WRONG
Kaytron Allen WAS 14.527 OVER 1 26 Less efficient (0.3 vs 4.4 yds/carry) WRONG
Seth McGowan IND 8.59 OVER 31 22 More carries (6 vs 2 expected) RIGHT
Jonathan Taylor IND 94.589 UNDER 95 6 On target WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Josh Downs IND 71.561 UNDER 16 45 Fewer targets (4 vs 6.8 expected) RIGHT
Laquon Treadwell IND 27.513 UNDER 42 29 More targets (6 vs 0.8 expected) WRONG
Stefon Diggs WAS 58.553 UNDER 35 18 Less efficient (3.9 vs 7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Antonio Williams WAS 29.538 OVER 21 17 Less efficient (2.6 vs 9.3 yds/tgt) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.