Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

GBGB at TBTB

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

GB moneyline-155
TB moneyline+130
SpreadGB -3
Total38.5

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 11:40 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceTB 56%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.7points, both teams
Leo marginTB by 2.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jordan Love GB QB1 7.13713 250
Jalon Daniels TB QB1 6.72211 137

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bucky Irving TB RB1 3.814.61.13 63
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB1 4.110.10.93 37
Kenny Gainwell TB RB2 4.84.51.13 25
Kaleb Johnson GB RB2 4.24.60.93 18

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Christian Watson GB WR2 10.97.313 81
Emeka Egbuka TB WR1 7.17.113 53
Matthew Golden GB WR1 8.16.113 52
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR3 9.74.713 48
Ted Hurst III TB WR2 9.74.313 45
Skyy Moore GB WR3 2.91.813 9
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

GB Game status

4 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Aaron BanksG Knee / Toe
  • Out Jacob MonkC Quadricep
  • Out Anthony CampbellDT Ankle
  • Out Warren BrinsonDT Calf / Groin
  • Questionable Jager BurtonC Groin
  • Questionable Edgerrin CooperLB Shoulder / Concussion
TB Game status

4 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Baker MayfieldQB Thumb
  • Out Ko KieftTE Elbow
  • Out Rueben Bain Jr.LB Groin / Shoulder
  • Out Benjamin MorrisonCB Quadricep
  • Questionable Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT Ankle / Foot
  • Questionable SirVocea DennisLB Calf
  • Questionable Jacob ParrishCB Not injury related - personal matter

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

GB This season TB
56 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 35
51 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 39
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 53
47 Overall 46
QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45 Last season QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

GB Per game, this season TB
0.67Interceptions thrown1.00
0.67Interceptions caught0.67
0.67Fumbles lost1.33
0.00Fumbles forced0.00
0.67Takeaways0.67
1.33Giveaways2.33
-0.67Net turnover margin-1.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

GB Offense TB
+0.131EPA per dropback-0.127
-1.1Completion % over expected-2.0
1.4%Interception rate2.4%
5.6%Sack rate taken8.6%
-0.196Rush EPA per carry-0.008
6.6%Explosive play rate5.6%
GB Defense TB
+0.050EPA allowed per play-0.032
5.3Yards allowed per play5.63
3.4%Sack rate3.6%
0.9%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is GB, right is TB.

GB This season TB
3Games3
281.3Pass yards/g205
48.7Rush yards/g94.3
6Passing TD2
2Interceptions thrown3
218Pass yards allowed/g220
138.7Rush yards allowed/g76
2Interceptions forced2
GB Last season TB
231.6Pass yards/g220.9
118.7Rush yards/g114.5
30Passing TD26
7Interceptions thrown11
215.4Pass yards allowed/g254.8
116.3Rush yards allowed/g99.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB56

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love365/124 52.4%844281.3 6 / 26.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
MarShawn Lloyd323 6830
Kaleb Johnson312 383.20

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Matthew Golden WR13 15/3050%253 84.31
Christian Watson WR23 17/2958.6%284 94.74
Tucker Kraft TE3 9/1752.9%106 35.30
TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB35

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield361/96 63.5%615205 2 / 26.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving340 1804.51
Kenny Gainwell310 212.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR13 13/2065%141 471
Ted Hurst III WR23 6/1346.2%103 34.31
Cade Otton TE3 11/1764.7%120 400

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love16315/485 64.9%3704231.5 27 / 67.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Josh Jacobs16253 9843.913
Emanuel Wilson18126 49943

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR117 63/9665.6%848 49.97
Christian Watson WR211 38/6261.3%647 58.87
Tucker Kraft TE8 32/4472.7%489 61.16
TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Christian Watson (GB, 56%) and Emeka Egbuka (TB, 28%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
GB Leo’s chance
  1. Christian Watson WR2 56% no TD
  2. Matthew Golden WR1 17% scored
  3. MarShawn Lloyd RB1 17% no TD
TB Leo’s chance
  1. Emeka Egbuka WR1 28% no TD
  2. Ted Hurst III WR2 26% no TD
  3. Bucky Irving RB1 25% no TD

Final result

GB 17 – 14 TB

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

GB
Jordan Love QB 22/30197 yds2 TD1 INT
Kaleb Johnson RB 8 car42 yds0 TD
MarShawn Lloyd RB 7 car13 yds0 TD5 rec, 36 yds
Chris Brooks RB 4 car30 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Christian Watson WR 3/347 yds0 TD
Tucker Kraft TE 6/742 yds1 TD
MarShawn Lloyd RB 5/536 yds0 TD
TB
Jalon Daniels QB 19/27148 yds1 TD2 INT
Bucky Irving RB 16 car61 yds0 TD
Kenny Gainwell RB 3 car5 yds0 TD2 rec, 22 yds
Sean Tucker RB 3 car10 yds1 TD
Cade Otton TE 4/637 yds0 TD
Chris Godwin Jr. WR 6/731 yds0 TD
Ted Hurst III WR 2/325 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerTB 56%—GB wonNO PICK
Total points46.738.531OVER · WRONG
MarginTB by 2.5GB −3GB by 3TB +3 · PUSH

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jordan Love GB 241.5250 no side 197 53 Fewer attempts (30 vs 37 expected) NO LEAN
Jalon Daniels TB 170.5137 UNDER 148 11 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
MarShawn Lloyd GB 22.537 OVER 13 24 Less efficient (1.9 vs 4.1 yds/carry) WRONG
Kaleb Johnson GB 31.518 UNDER 42 24 More carries (8 vs 4.6 expected) WRONG
Kenny Gainwell TB 14.525 OVER 5 20 Less efficient (1.7 vs 4.8 yds/carry) WRONG
Bucky Irving TB 55.563 OVER 61 2 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Emeka Egbuka TB 37.553 OVER 13 40 Fewer targets (4 vs 7.1 expected) WRONG
Christian Watson GB 68.581 OVER 47 34 Fewer targets (3 vs 7.3 expected) WRONG
Matthew Golden GB 56.552 UNDER 21 31 Less efficient (3 vs 8.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Ted Hurst III TB 22.545 OVER 25 20 Fewer targets (3 vs 4.3 expected) RIGHT
Chris Godwin Jr. TB 25.548 OVER 31 17 Less efficient (4.4 vs 9.7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Skyy Moore GB 17.59 UNDER -2 11 Less efficient (-1 vs 2.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.