Week 4 · Sunday 20:20

DETDET at CARCAR

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

DET moneyline-225
CAR moneyline+185
SpreadDET -4.5
Total52.5

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 8:15 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDET 56%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total52.5points, both teams
Leo marginCAR by 0.3expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Bryce Young CAR QB1 7.336.21.23 295
Jared Goff DET QB1 7.635.40.93 238

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB1 4.919.61.23 112
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB1 4.113.213 57
AJ Dillon CAR RB2 4.33.713 18
Sione Vaki DET RB2 4.42.21.23 13

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR1 7.87.51.23 71
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR1 6.510.90.93 68
Jalen Coker CAR WR2 95.71.23 62
Jameson Williams DET WR2 95.90.93 52
Isaac TeSlaa DET WR3 9.12.40.93 24
John Metchie III CAR WR3 3.73.61.22 19
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

DET Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Ben BartchG Foot
  • Questionable D.J. ReedCB Rib
CAR Game status

2 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Xavier LegetteWR Knee
  • Out Damien LewisG Elbow
  • Questionable Jalen CokerWR Quadricep
  • Questionable Monroe FreelingT Concussion
  • Questionable Cam JacksonDT Knee
  • Questionable Lee HunterDT Foot

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

DET This season CAR
68 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 52
66 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 50
48 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 46
57 Overall 48
QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55 Last season QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DET Per game, this season CAR
0.00Interceptions thrown0.67
0.67Interceptions caught1.00
0.33Fumbles lost0.33
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.67Takeaways2.00
0.33Giveaways1.00
+1.33Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DET Offense CAR
+0.230EPA per dropback+0.033
+2.3Completion % over expected+2.2
0.8%Interception rate2.0%
6.2%Sack rate taken5.9%
-0.065Rush EPA per carry-0.066
6.5%Explosive play rate6.0%
DET Defense CAR
+0.053EPA allowed per play+0.033
5.89Yards allowed per play5.68
5.0%Sack rate2.9%
1.1%Interception rate forced1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DET, right is CAR.

DET This season CAR
3Games3
267.3Pass yards/g313
120.7Rush yards/g97
8Passing TD7
0Interceptions thrown2
326.3Pass yards allowed/g186
117.3Rush yards allowed/g193.3
2Interceptions forced3
DET Last season CAR
268.6Pass yards/g198.2
120.1Rush yards/g114.4
35Passing TD25
8Interceptions thrown13
236.9Pass yards allowed/g220.1
114.5Rush yards allowed/g122.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

DET 2026

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff377/109 70.6%802267.3 8 / 07.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs365 3074.74
Sione Vaki39 404.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR13 23/3565.7%228 765
Jameson Williams WR23 10/1758.8%127 42.30
Sam LaPorta TE3 14/1973.7%144 481
CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young372/121 59.5%939313 7 / 27.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chuba Hubbard341 1844.51
AJ Dillon312 413.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR13 12/2352.2%193 64.30
Jalen Coker WR23 18/2281.8%222 742
Darren Waller TE3 10/1376.9%112 37.32

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DET 2025

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff17393/578 68%4564268.5 34 / 87.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17243 1223513
David Montgomery17158 7164.58

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR117 117/17268%1401 82.411
Jameson Williams WR217 65/10263.7%1117 65.77
Sam LaPorta TE9 40/4981.6%489 54.33
CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young17325/518 62.7%3275192.6 24 / 126.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rico Dowdle18241 10854.56
Chuba Hubbard16147 5573.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR118 75/12958.1%1095 60.87
Xavier Legette WR216 36/6852.9%371 23.23
Tommy Tremble TE16 30/4075%271 16.92

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 67%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, 61%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
DET Leo’s chance
  1. Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 67% scored
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 61% no TD
  3. Isaac TeSlaa WR3 18% no TD
CAR Leo’s chance
  1. Jalen Coker WR2 40% no TD
  2. John Metchie III WR3 29% no TD
  3. Tetairoa McMillan WR1 22% scored 2

Final result

DET 26 – 32 CAR

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

DET
Jared Goff QB 32/52412 yds1 TD0 INT
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 15 car46 yds1 TD4 rec, 31 yds
Jameson Williams WR 6/8102 yds0 TD
Isaac TeSlaa WR 4/895 yds0 TD
Sam LaPorta TE 8/1384 yds1 TD
CAR
Bryce Young QB 29/41329 yds2 TD0 INT
Chuba Hubbard RB 20 car122 yds2 TD1 rec, 7 yds
AJ Dillon RB 5 car2 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Tetairoa McMillan WR 14/16192 yds2 TD
John Metchie III WR 3/537 yds0 TD
Darren Waller TE 3/636 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDET 56%—CAR wonNO PICK
Total points52.552.558no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginCAR by 0.3DET −4.5CAR by 6CAR +4.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jared Goff DET 264.5238 UNDER 412 174 More attempts (52 vs 35.4 expected) WRONG
Bryce Young CAR 245.5295 OVER 329 34 More attempts (41 vs 36.2 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 97.5112 OVER 46 66 Less efficient (3.1 vs 4.9 yds/carry) WRONG
Chuba Hubbard CAR 66.557 UNDER 122 65 More efficient (6.1 vs 4.1 yds/carry) WRONG
AJ Dillon CAR 12.518 OVER 2 16 Less efficient (0.4 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Sione Vaki DET 11.513 OVER 0 13 WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tetairoa McMillan CAR 72.571 no side 192 121 More efficient (12 vs 7.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Isaac TeSlaa DET 17.524 OVER 95 71 More targets (8 vs 2.4 expected) RIGHT
Jameson Williams DET 52.552 no side 102 50 More efficient (12.8 vs 9 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
John Metchie III CAR 20.519 UNDER 37 18 More efficient (7.4 vs 3.7 yds/tgt) WRONG
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 78.568 UNDER 75 7 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.