Week 4 · Sunday 16:25

LACLAC at SEASEA

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf

LAC moneyline+275
SEA moneyline-345
SpreadSEA -7
Total42.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 3:45 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSEA 76%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.6points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 15.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Drew Lock SEA QB1 7.827.712 214
Justin Herbert LAC QB1 7.230.40.93 179

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Omarion Hampton LAC RB1 4.316.10.93 64
Emanuel Wilson SEA RB1 4.213.613 59
George Holani SEA RB2 4.15.913 26
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB2 4.45.20.93 22

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR1 11.410.813 130
Ladd McConkey LAC WR3 11.15.80.93 59
Cooper Kupp SEA WR3 10.43.913 45
Tre Harris LAC WR2 9.84.10.93 38
Quentin Johnston LAC WR1 4.860.93 29
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR2 4.64.313 24
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

LAC Game status

4 out · 5 questionable

  • Out Brenen ThompsonWR Quadricep
  • Out Charlie KolarTE Forearm
  • Out Kayode AwosikaG Fibula
  • Out Dalvin TomlinsonDT Hamstring
  • Questionable Trey LanceQB Groin
  • Questionable Ladd McConkeyWR Foot
  • Questionable Donte JacksonCB Concussion
  • Questionable Derwin JamesS Hamstring / Not injury related - resting player
  • Questionable Elijah MoldenS Hamstring
SEA Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Jadarian PriceRB Chest
  • Out Zach CharbonnetRB Knee
  • Questionable Chazz SurrattLB Calf
  • Questionable Ty OkadaS Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LAC This season SEA
36 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 67
37 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 57
61 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 74
49 Overall 65
QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66 Last season QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LAC Per game, this season SEA
1.33Interceptions thrown0.67
1.00Interceptions caught1.33
0.67Fumbles lost0.67
1.33Fumbles forced0.00
2.33Takeaways1.33
2.00Giveaways1.33
+0.33Net turnover margin0

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LAC Offense SEA
-0.087EPA per dropback+0.197
-1.7Completion % over expected+5.0
3.3%Interception rate2.4%
9.2%Sack rate taken4.4%
-0.119Rush EPA per carry-0.126
4.9%Explosive play rate6.3%
LAC Defense SEA
-0.042EPA allowed per play-0.136
5.44Yards allowed per play4.59
4.3%Sack rate4.2%
1.8%Interception rate forced1.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LAC, right is SEA.

LAC This season SEA
3Games3
209Pass yards/g276
113Rush yards/g101
3Passing TD8
4Interceptions thrown2
244.7Pass yards allowed/g152
116.3Rush yards allowed/g87
3Interceptions forced4
LAC Last season SEA
228.4Pass yards/g236.8
119.7Rush yards/g124.4
26Passing TD30
14Interceptions thrown15
199Pass yards allowed/g221.6
107.6Rush yards allowed/g93.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert352/88 59.1%627209 3 / 47.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton350 1933.92
Keaton Mitchell317 8550

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Quentin Johnston WR13 6/1735.3%64 21.30
Tre Harris WR23 10/1662.5%149 49.70
David Njoku TE2 6/875%67 33.50
SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drew Lock235/48 72.9%422211 4 / 08.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Emanuel Wilson332 1093.40
Jadarian Price328 1194.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR13 27/3675%405 1356
Rashid Shaheed WR23 6/1250%53 17.70
AJ Barner TE3 8/1266.7%90 300

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43
SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold20379/568 66.7%4720236 30 / 148.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III20286 13404.79
Zach Charbonnet17189 750412

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR120 136/18972%1992 99.612
Cooper Kupp WR219 62/9366.7%750 39.53
AJ Barner TE20 58/7577.3%586 29.37

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, 69%) and Omarion Hampton (LAC, 38%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LAC Leo’s chance
  1. Omarion Hampton RB1 38% scored
  2. Ladd McConkey WR3 26% no TD
  3. Quentin Johnston WR1 22% no TD
SEA Leo’s chance
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 69% no TD
  2. Cooper Kupp WR3 22% no TD
  3. Emanuel Wilson RB1 13% scored 2

Final result

LAC 23 – 30 SEA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LAC
Justin Herbert QB 19/31189 yds1 TD2 INT
Keaton Mitchell RB 10 car39 yds0 TD5 rec, 24 yds
Omarion Hampton RB 9 car45 yds1 TD2 rec, 8 yds
Kimani Vidal RB 5 car25 yds0 TD2 rec, 11 yds
Tre Harris WR 3/560 yds0 TD
Quentin Johnston WR 1/244 yds0 TD
Oronde Gadsden II TE 5/836 yds0 TD
SEA
Sam Darnold QB 13/22168 yds2 TD1 INT
Emanuel Wilson RB 21 car81 yds1 TD3 rec, 39 yds
George Holani RB 7 car18 yds0 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Rashid Shaheed WR 2 car33 yds1 TD1 rec, 20 yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 5/676 yds0 TD
Emanuel Wilson RB 3/439 yds1 TD
Rashid Shaheed WR 1/320 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSEA 76%—SEA wonRIGHT
Total points42.642.553no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginSEA by 15.8SEA −7SEA by 7SEA −7 · PUSH

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Justin Herbert LAC 199.5179 UNDER 189 10 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Emanuel Wilson SEA 45.559 OVER 81 22 More carries (21 vs 13.6 expected) RIGHT
Omarion Hampton LAC 45.564 OVER 45 19 Fewer carries (9 vs 16.1 expected) WRONG
Keaton Mitchell LAC 18.522 OVER 39 17 More carries (10 vs 5.2 expected) RIGHT
George Holani SEA 32.526 UNDER 18 8 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ladd McConkey LAC 46.559 OVER 0 59 Fewer targets (2 vs 5.8 expected) WRONG
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 93.5130 OVER 76 54 Fewer targets (6 vs 10.8 expected) WRONG
Cooper Kupp SEA 23.545 OVER 13 32 Fewer targets (2 vs 3.9 expected) WRONG
Tre Harris LAC 36.538 no side 60 22 More efficient (12 vs 9.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Quentin Johnston LAC 34.529 UNDER 44 15 More efficient (22 vs 4.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rashid Shaheed SEA 23.524 no side 20 4 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.