Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

DALDAL at HOUHOU

Reliant Stadium · closed · astroturf

DAL moneyline+130
HOU moneyline-155
SpreadHOU -3
Total48.5

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 8:16 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDAL 55%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total49points, both teams
Leo marginHOU by 1.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Dak Prescott DAL QB1 7.235.713 263
C.J. Stroud HOU QB1 6.836.713 231

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Javonte Williams DAL RB1 4.615.10.93 64
David Montgomery HOU RB1 4.112.21.23 59
Woody Marks HOU RB2 3.88.71.23 39
Tyler Goodson DAL RB2 4.33.20.91 14

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR1 11.48.713 107
Nico Collins HOU WR1 98.811 79
George Pickens DAL WR2 6.88.213 62
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR2 6.15.213 34
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR3 4.54.913 27
Jared Wayne HOU WR3 7.92.813 25
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

DAL Game status

2 out

  • Out DeMarvion OvershownLB Hamstring
  • Out Cobie DurantCB Hamstring
HOU Game status

2 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Azeez Al-ShaairLB Groin
  • Out M.J. StewartS Knee
  • Questionable Ed IngramG Groin
  • Questionable Jadeveon ClowneyDE Knee
  • Questionable Logan HallDE Knee
  • Questionable Jake HansenLB Calf

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

DAL This season HOU
69 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 42
63 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 44
22 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 67
43 Overall 56
QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27 Last season QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DAL Per game, this season HOU
0.33Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.33
0.33Fumbles lost0.67
2.00Fumbles forced1.00
2.00Takeaways1.33
0.67Giveaways0.67
+1.33Net turnover margin+0.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DAL Offense HOU
+0.254EPA per dropback-0.030
+4.0Completion % over expected-2.9
1.5%Interception rate1.2%
3.9%Sack rate taken6.3%
-0.028Rush EPA per carry-0.096
5.0%Explosive play rate5.2%
DAL Defense HOU
+0.180EPA allowed per play-0.086
6.23Yards allowed per play5.32
2.3%Sack rate5.5%
0.3%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DAL, right is HOU.

DAL This season HOU
3Games3
243.3Pass yards/g264.7
94.3Rush yards/g84.7
7Passing TD3
1Interceptions thrown0
207.7Pass yards allowed/g258.7
179.7Rush yards allowed/g86.7
0Interceptions forced1
DAL Last season HOU
278.5Pass yards/g232.5
125.6Rush yards/g108.6
31Passing TD26
12Interceptions thrown14
265.9Pass yards allowed/g200.7
125.5Rush yards allowed/g92.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB69

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott373/105 69.5%730243.3 7 / 17

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams343 1693.92
Tyler Goodson16 223.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR13 20/2580%309 1033
George Pickens WR23 16/2564%150 500
Jake Ferguson TE3 9/1181.8%72 243
HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB42

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud372/120 60%794264.7 3 / 06.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
David Montgomery337 1032.82
Woody Marks322 6531

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Hutchinson WR13 9/2142.9%120 400
Jared Wayne WR23 4/1233.3%65 21.70
Dalton Schultz TE3 19/2576%205 68.30

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38
HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud16314/502 62.5%3503218.9 21 / 137

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks18229 8323.63
Nick Chubb17136 5684.23

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR116 74/12758.3%1138 71.16
Jayden Higgins WR219 50/8261%623 32.86
Dalton Schultz TE19 87/11277.7%836 443

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: David Montgomery (HOU, 46%) and CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 45%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
DAL Leo’s chance
  1. CeeDee Lamb WR1 45% scored
  2. Javonte Williams RB1 44% scored 3
  3. George Pickens WR2 25% no TD
HOU Leo’s chance
  1. David Montgomery RB1 46% no TD
  2. Nico Collins WR1 38% scored 2
  3. Woody Marks RB2 25% scored

Final result

DAL 34 – 30 HOU

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

DAL
Dak Prescott QB 32/45335 yds1 TD0 INT
Javonte Williams RB 19 car62 yds3 TD5 rec, 21 yds
Tyler Goodson RB 3 car12 yds0 TD
CeeDee Lamb WR 1 car-6 yds0 TD17 rec, 189 yds
CeeDee Lamb WR 17/21189 yds1 TD
George Pickens WR 2/375 yds0 TD
Ryan Flournoy WR 4/537 yds0 TD
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB 21/31347 yds2 TD0 INT
David Montgomery RB 10 car24 yds0 TD
Woody Marks RB 6 car22 yds1 TD
Jaylin Noel WR 1 car4 yds0 TD3 rec, 85 yds
Nico Collins WR 7/8118 yds2 TD
Jaylin Noel WR 3/385 yds0 TD
Xavier Hutchinson WR 3/546 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDAL 55%—DAL wonNO PICK
Total points4948.564no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginHOU by 1.9HOU −3DAL by 4DAL +3 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
C.J. Stroud HOU 244.5231 UNDER 347 116 More efficient (11.2 vs 6.8 yds/att) WRONG
Dak Prescott DAL 266.5263 no side 335 72 More attempts (45 vs 35.7 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
David Montgomery HOU 44.559 OVER 24 35 Less efficient (2.4 vs 4.1 yds/carry) WRONG
Woody Marks HOU 33.539 OVER 22 17 Fewer carries (6 vs 8.7 expected) WRONG
Javonte Williams DAL 59.564 OVER 62 2 On target RIGHT
Tyler Goodson DAL —14 no side 12 2 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
CeeDee Lamb DAL 76.5107 OVER 189 82 More targets (21 vs 8.7 expected) RIGHT
Nico Collins HOU 72.579 OVER 118 39 More efficient (14.8 vs 9 yds/tgt) RIGHT
George Pickens DAL 70.562 UNDER 75 13 More efficient (25 vs 6.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Xavier Hutchinson HOU 26.534 OVER 46 12 More efficient (9.2 vs 6.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Ryan Flournoy DAL 33.527 UNDER 37 10 More efficient (7.4 vs 4.5 yds/tgt) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.