Week 3 · Thursday 20:15

ATLATL at GBGB

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass

ATL moneyline+190
GB moneyline-230
SpreadGB -4.5
Total43.5

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 24, 7:52 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceGB 58%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.8points, both teams
Leo marginGB by 8.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jordan Love GB QB1 7.63312 254
Cooper Rush ATL QB1 6.625.512 154

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 4.517.70.92 78
Brian Robinson ATL RB2 4.27.70.92 33
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB1 3.19.50.92 28
Chris Brooks GB RB2 2.53.50.92 11

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Christian Watson GB WR1 11.66.812 80
Drake London ATL WR1 8.47.212 57
Matthew Golden GB WR2 7.65.212 40
Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 5.5312 15
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR3 3.73.412 11
Skyy Moore GB WR3 3.10.912 2
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

ATL This season GB
22 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 58
30 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 53
57 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 51
43 Overall 52
QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57 Last season QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ATL Per game, this season GB
2.50Interceptions thrown0.50
0.00Interceptions caught0.50
1.00Fumbles lost1.00
1.00Fumbles forced0.00
1.00Takeaways0.50
3.50Giveaways1.50
-2.5Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ATL Offense GB
-0.218EPA per dropback+0.136
-7.3Completion % over expected+0.1
4.1%Interception rate1.3%
6.9%Sack rate taken6.5%
-0.076Rush EPA per carry-0.168
4.6%Explosive play rate6.7%
ATL Defense GB
-0.027EPA allowed per play+0.005
5.46Yards allowed per play4.93
4.7%Sack rate3.9%
1.0%Interception rate forced0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ATL, right is GB.

ATL This season GB
2Games2
144Pass yards/g266
138.5Rush yards/g64.5
1Passing TD4
5Interceptions thrown1
254Pass yards allowed/g199
63Rush yards allowed/g87
0Interceptions forced1
ATL Last season GB
217.8Pass yards/g231.6
125.8Rush yards/g118.7
19Passing TD30
8Interceptions thrown7
221.9Pass yards allowed/g215.4
126.2Rush yards allowed/g116.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cooper Rush222/39 56.4%229114.5 1 / 45.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson237 1554.20
Brian Robinson220 824.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR12 6/966.7%80 400
Jahan Dotson WR22 3/742.9%30 150
Kyle Pitts TE2 1/425%15 7.50
GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love237/71 52.1%532266 4 / 17.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
MarShawn Lloyd219 5730
Chris Brooks211 403.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Christian Watson WR12 10/1952.6%188 943
Matthew Golden WR22 10/1855.6%153 76.50
Tucker Kraft TE2 5/955.6%80 400

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.9166/276 60.1%1982220.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson17287 14785.17
Tyler Allgeier17143 5143.68

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR112 68/11260.7%919 76.67
Darnell Mooney WR215 32/7244.4%443 29.51
Kyle Pitts TE17 88/11874.6%928 54.65
GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love16315/485 64.9%3704231.5 27 / 67.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Josh Jacobs16253 9843.913
Emanuel Wilson18126 49943

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR117 63/9665.6%848 49.97
Christian Watson WR211 38/6261.3%647 58.87
Tucker Kraft TE8 32/4472.7%489 61.16

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Christian Watson (GB, 58%) and Drake London (ATL, 27%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ATL Leo’s chance
  1. Drake London WR1 27% no TD
  2. Bijan Robinson RB1 22% scored 2
  3. Olamide Zaccheaus WR3 11% no TD
GB Leo’s chance
  1. Christian Watson WR1 58% scored
  2. MarShawn Lloyd RB1 19% no TD
  3. Matthew Golden WR2 6% scored

Final result

ATL 35 – 14 GB

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ATL
Michael Penix Jr. QB 18/25256 yds1 TD1 INT
Bijan Robinson RB 29 car194 yds2 TD2 rec, 19 yds
Brian Robinson RB 10 car50 yds1 TD
Drake London WR 9/10194 yds0 TD
Bijan Robinson RB 2/219 yds0 TD
Austin Hooper TE 2/211 yds1 TD
GB
Jordan Love QB 28/53312 yds2 TD1 INT
MarShawn Lloyd RB 4 car11 yds0 TD2 rec, 7 yds
Kaleb Johnson RB 4 car6 yds0 TD1 rec, 10 yds
Matthew Golden WR 5/12100 yds1 TD
Christian Watson WR 7/1096 yds1 TD
Skyy Moore WR 3/731 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerGB 58%—ATL wonNO PICK
Total points43.842.549no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginGB by 8.9GB −4.5ATL by 21GB −4.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jordan Love GB 233.5254 OVER 312 58 More attempts (53 vs 33 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bijan Robinson ATL 78.578 no side 194 116 More efficient (6.7 vs 4.5 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Brian Robinson ATL 24.533 OVER 50 17 More carries (10 vs 7.7 expected) RIGHT
MarShawn Lloyd GB 24.528 OVER 11 17 Fewer carries (4 vs 9.5 expected) WRONG
Chris Brooks GB 14.511 UNDER 0 11 RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drake London ATL 65.557 UNDER 194 137 More efficient (19.4 vs 8.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Matthew Golden GB 55.540 UNDER 100 60 More targets (12 vs 5.2 expected) WRONG
Skyy Moore GB 10.52 UNDER 31 29 More targets (7 vs 0.9 expected) WRONG
Christian Watson GB 71.580 OVER 96 16 More targets (10 vs 6.8 expected) RIGHT
Jahan Dotson ATL 17.515 UNDER 11 4 On target RIGHT
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL 10.511 no side 9 2 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.