Week 3 · Sunday 20:20

LALA at DENDEN

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass

LA moneyline-108
DEN moneyline-112
SpreadDEN -1.5
Total43.5

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:03 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceLA 62%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.7points, both teams
Leo marginLA by 2.4expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Matthew Stafford LA QB1 8.231.60.92 236
Bo Nix DEN QB1 6.732.80.92 194

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kyren Williams LA RB1 5.213.41.12 82
Blake Corum LA RB2 5.79.81.12 67
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB1 4.612.212 59
RJ Harvey DEN RB2 4.85.811 31

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Davante Adams LA WR1 9.58.30.92 73
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR1 7.87.30.92 51
Courtland Sutton DEN WR2 66.10.92 32
Pat Bryant DEN WR3 5.43.60.92 17
Tutu Atwell LA WR2 9.61.80.91 15
Konata Mumpfield LA WR3 3.220.92 5
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LA This season DEN
67 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 47
64 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 46
59 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 63
61 Overall 54
QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55 Last season QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LA Per game, this season DEN
1.00Interceptions thrown1.00
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.50
0.50Fumbles forced0.00
1.50Takeaways1.00
2.00Giveaways1.50
-0.5Net turnover margin-0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LA Offense DEN
+0.228EPA per dropback+0.012
+1.0Completion % over expected-0.3
2.0%Interception rate2.4%
3.1%Sack rate taken4.5%
-0.061Rush EPA per carry-0.068
7.3%Explosive play rate5.1%
LA Defense DEN
-0.050EPA allowed per play-0.044
5.24Yards allowed per play5.12
3.3%Sack rate5.3%
1.6%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LA, right is DEN.

LA This season DEN
2Games2
247.5Pass yards/g209.5
142.5Rush yards/g82.5
4Passing TD2
2Interceptions thrown2
168Pass yards allowed/g186.5
113Rush yards allowed/g157.5
2Interceptions forced2
LA Last season DEN
282.2Pass yards/g228.6
124.7Rush yards/g114.1
52Passing TD29
9Interceptions thrown13
242.8Pass yards allowed/g209.2
110.1Rush yards allowed/g98.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford237/56 66.1%482241 4 / 28.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams223 1265.51
Blake Corum222 13360

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Davante Adams WR12 11/1668.8%221 110.52
Puka Nacua WR21 5/955.6%74 740
Terrance Ferguson TE2 6/1060%54 271
DEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix239/59 66.1%419209.5 2 / 27.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
J.K. Dobbins218 7240
Jonah Coleman210 393.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR12 9/1369.2%140 700
Courtland Sutton WR22 5/955.6%36 180
Evan Engram TE2 5/683.3%60 301

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford20454/716 63.4%5643282.2 52 / 97.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams20303 14354.712
Blake Corum20171 8655.16

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Puka Nacua WR119 153/20873.6%2047 107.712
Davante Adams WR217 71/13951.1%974 57.315
Colby Parkinson TE17 51/7072.9%560 32.99
DEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix18414/658 62.9%4210233.9 28 / 126.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
RJ Harvey19165 5973.67
J.K. Dobbins10153 77254

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Courtland Sutton WR119 81/13858.7%1087 57.28
Troy Franklin WR217 65/10462.5%709 41.76
Evan Engram TE18 53/8264.6%487 27.11

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Davante Adams (LA, 55%) and Kyren Williams (LA, 45%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LA Leo’s chance
  1. Davante Adams WR1 55% no TD
  2. Kyren Williams RB1 45% no TD
  3. Blake Corum RB2 24% no TD
DEN Leo’s chance
  1. RJ Harvey RB2 28% no TD
  2. J.K. Dobbins RB1 23% no TD
  3. Courtland Sutton WR2 21% no TD

Final result

LA 26 – 30 DEN

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LA
Matthew Stafford QB 30/55390 yds2 TD2 INT
Kyren Williams RB 15 car88 yds0 TD6 rec, 70 yds
Blake Corum RB 6 car15 yds0 TD2 rec, 0 yds
Davante Adams WR 7/13137 yds0 TD
Konata Mumpfield WR 4/893 yds1 TD
Kyren Williams RB 6/770 yds0 TD
DEN
Bo Nix QB 17/34186 yds2 TD1 INT
J.K. Dobbins RB 17 car49 yds0 TD1 rec, 4 yds
RJ Harvey RB 2 car6 yds0 TD6 rec, 41 yds
Jaylen Waddle WR 1 car14 yds0 TD2 rec, 10 yds
Courtland Sutton WR 3/746 yds0 TD
Pat Bryant WR 2/244 yds1 TD
RJ Harvey RB 6/741 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerLA 62%—DEN wonWRONG
Total points42.744.556UNDER · WRONG
MarginLA by 2.4LA −1.5DEN by 4no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Matthew Stafford LA 236.5236 no side 390 154 More attempts (55 vs 31.6 expected) NO LEAN
Bo Nix DEN 211.5194 UNDER 186 8 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Blake Corum LA 48.567 OVER 15 52 Fewer carries (6 vs 9.8 expected) WRONG
RJ Harvey DEN 20.531 OVER 6 25 Fewer carries (2 vs 5.8 expected) WRONG
J.K. Dobbins DEN 50.559 OVER 49 10 Less efficient (2.9 vs 4.6 yds/carry) WRONG
Kyren Williams LA 52.582 OVER 88 6 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Konata Mumpfield LA 10.55 UNDER 93 88 More efficient (11.6 vs 3.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Davante Adams LA 71.573 no side 137 64 More targets (13 vs 8.3 expected) NO LEAN
Jaylen Waddle DEN 59.551 UNDER 10 41 Less efficient (1.4 vs 7.8 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Pat Bryant DEN 26.517 UNDER 44 27 More efficient (22 vs 5.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Courtland Sutton DEN 36.532 UNDER 46 14 More targets (7 vs 6.1 expected) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.