Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

SEASEA at WASWAS

Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass

SEA moneyline-410
WAS moneyline+320
SpreadSEA -8.5
Total40.5

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSEA 65%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.6points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 14expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Drew Lock SEA QB1 7.827.712 213
Marcus Mariota WAS QB1 7.424.30.91 149

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jadarian Price SEA RB2 4.611.512 54
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS RB1 4.212.10.92 51
Rachaad White WAS RB2 57.40.92 38
Emanuel Wilson SEA RB1 3.29.412 33

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR1 1210.212 123
Stefon Diggs WAS WR1 8.26.20.92 43
Terry McLaurin WAS WR2 7.86.20.92 41
Cooper Kupp SEA WR3 10.93.612 38
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR2 5.14.512 22
Dyami Brown WAS WR3 3.33.10.92 8
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

SEA This season WAS
68 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 52
60 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 52
76 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 31
68 Overall 41
QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69 Last season QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

SEA Per game, this season WAS
0.00Interceptions thrown0.00
2.00Interceptions caught0.00
0.50Fumbles lost0.50
0.00Fumbles forced0.00
2.00Takeaways0.00
0.50Giveaways0.50
+1.5Net turnover margin-0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

SEA Offense WAS
+0.230EPA per dropback+0.039
+4.7Completion % over expected+0.7
1.7%Interception rate1.7%
5.5%Sack rate taken5.4%
-0.090Rush EPA per carry+0.025
6.3%Explosive play rate4.7%
SEA Defense WAS
-0.143EPA allowed per play+0.141
4.68Yards allowed per play6.29
4.4%Sack rate4.1%
2.3%Interception rate forced0.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SEA, right is WAS.

SEA This season WAS
2Games2
217.5Pass yards/g185.5
129.5Rush yards/g157
4Passing TD4
0Interceptions thrown0
136.5Pass yards allowed/g241
89.5Rush yards allowed/g101
4Interceptions forced0
SEA Last season WAS
236.8Pass yards/g195.8
124.4Rush yards/g134.7
30Passing TD19
15Interceptions thrown12
221.6Pass yards allowed/g257.1
93.2Rush yards allowed/g141.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drew Lock235/48 72.9%422211 4 / 08.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Emanuel Wilson223 954.10
Jadarian Price223 1044.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR12 17/2277.3%277 138.54
Rashid Shaheed WR22 4/944.4%39 19.50
AJ Barner TE2 3/3100%21 10.50
WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jayden Daniels229/51 56.9%260130 3 / 05.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt228 1063.81
Rachaad White214 654.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR12 9/1560%102 513
Terry McLaurin WR22 4/1330.8%64 320
John Bates TE1 2/366.7%13 130

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold20379/568 66.7%4720236 30 / 148.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III20286 13404.79
Zach Charbonnet17189 750412

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR120 136/18972%1992 99.612
Cooper Kupp WR219 62/9366.7%750 39.53
AJ Barner TE20 58/7577.3%586 29.37
WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Marcus Mariota10139/227 61.2%1695169.5 10 / 77.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17175 8054.68
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12112 5004.56

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR116 72/9972.7%727 45.45
Terry McLaurin WR210 38/6063.3%582 58.23
Zach Ertz TE13 50/7269.4%504 38.84

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, 64%) and Stefon Diggs (WAS, 44%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
SEA Leo’s chance
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 64% scored 2
  2. Jadarian Price RB2 22% no TD
  3. Emanuel Wilson RB1 14% no TD
WAS Leo’s chance
  1. Stefon Diggs WR1 44% no TD
  2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB1 35% no TD
  3. Terry McLaurin WR2 16% scored

Final result

SEA 31 – 33 WAS

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

SEA
Sam Darnold QB 31/45379 yds4 TD2 INT
Emanuel Wilson RB 9 car14 yds0 TD
Jadarian Price RB 5 car15 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
George Holani RB 3 car10 yds0 TD5 rec, 48 yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 10/14128 yds2 TD
AJ Barner TE 5/969 yds0 TD
George Holani RB 5/548 yds0 TD
WAS
Marcus Mariota QB 19/31183 yds3 TD0 INT
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB 19 car36 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Rachaad White RB 8 car35 yds0 TD1 rec, 6 yds
Terry McLaurin WR 6/977 yds1 TD
Stefon Diggs WR 4/733 yds0 TD
Jaylin Lane WR 1/121 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSEA 65%—WAS wonWRONG
Total points44.640.564OVER · RIGHT
MarginSEA by 14SEA −8.5WAS by 2SEA −8.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Marcus Mariota WAS 173.5149 UNDER 183 34 More attempts (31 vs 24.3 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jadarian Price SEA 55.554 no side 15 39 Fewer carries (5 vs 11.5 expected) NO LEAN
Emanuel Wilson SEA 30.533 OVER 14 19 Less efficient (1.6 vs 3.2 yds/carry) WRONG
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS 38.551 OVER 36 15 Less efficient (1.9 vs 4.2 yds/carry) WRONG
Rachaad White WAS 19.538 OVER 35 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Terry McLaurin WAS 42.541 no side 77 36 More targets (9 vs 6.2 expected) NO LEAN
Stefon Diggs WAS 34.543 OVER 33 10 Less efficient (4.7 vs 8.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rashid Shaheed SEA 28.522 UNDER 14 8 On target RIGHT
Cooper Kupp SEA 20.538 OVER 46 8 On target RIGHT
Dyami Brown WAS —8 no side 0 8 On target
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 92.5123 OVER 128 5 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.