Week 3 · Sunday 16:25

BALBAL at DALDAL

Maracana Stadium · open · grass

BAL moneyline-170
DAL moneyline+142
SpreadBAL -3
Total53.5

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 3:50 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDAL 51%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.5points, both teams
Leo marginBAL by 0.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Dak Prescott DAL QB1 7.334.712 239
Lamar Jackson BAL QB1 9.126.712 233

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Derrick Henry BAL RB1 5.2191.22 117
Javonte Williams DAL RB1 3.913.90.92 52
Emari Demercado DAL RB2 4.83.10.92 17
Justice Hill BAL RB2 3.12.91.22 14

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Zay Flowers BAL WR1 17.8711 122
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR1 10.28.812 86
George Pickens DAL WR2 7.57.612 55
Chris Moore BAL WR3 11.52.412 26
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR3 5.34.312 21
Rashod Bateman BAL WR2 5.23.612 17
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

BAL This season DAL
54 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 71
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 63
46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 23
54 Overall 43
QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45 Last season QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BAL Per game, this season DAL
0.50Interceptions thrown0.50
0.50Interceptions caught0.00
0.50Fumbles lost0.00
0.50Fumbles forced3.00
1.00Takeaways3.00
1.00Giveaways0.50
0Net turnover margin+2.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BAL Offense DAL
+0.081EPA per dropback+0.244
+4.1Completion % over expected+5.7
2.3%Interception rate1.8%
9.2%Sack rate taken4.2%
+0.110Rush EPA per carry-0.029
6.9%Explosive play rate5.4%
BAL Defense DAL
+0.019EPA allowed per play+0.186
5.47Yards allowed per play6.19
3.3%Sack rate2.7%
1.0%Interception rate forced0.4%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BAL, right is DAL.

BAL This season DAL
2Games2
279.5Pass yards/g227
155Rush yards/g67.5
2Passing TD6
1Interceptions thrown1
209Pass yards allowed/g218.5
83.5Rush yards allowed/g173.5
1Interceptions forced0
BAL Last season DAL
192.8Pass yards/g278.5
156.6Rush yards/g125.6
23Passing TD31
11Interceptions thrown12
259Pass yards allowed/g265.9
106.6Rush yards allowed/g125.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

BAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson238/56 67.9%559279.5 2 / 110

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry240 2125.34
Justice Hill28 2430

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashod Bateman WR12 7/1070%88 441
Zay Flowers WR21 5/683.3%150 1501
Mark Andrews TE2 10/1376.9%98 490
DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB71

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott248/65 73.8%454227 6 / 17

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams224 7131
Emari Demercado25 1530

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR12 13/1776.5%197 98.53
George Pickens WR22 9/1464.3%68 340
Jake Ferguson TE2 6/6100%49 24.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson13192/302 63.6%2549196.1 21 / 78.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry17307 15955.216
Keaton Mitchell1359 3415.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR117 86/11872.9%1211 71.25
DeAndre Hopkins WR217 22/3956.4%330 19.42
Mark Andrews TE17 48/7068.6%422 24.85
DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Derrick Henry (BAL, 72%) and CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 48%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
BAL Leo’s chance
  1. Derrick Henry RB1 72% scored 2
  2. Zay Flowers WR1 35% no TD
  3. Rashod Bateman WR2 26% no TD
DAL Leo’s chance
  1. CeeDee Lamb WR1 48% no TD
  2. Javonte Williams RB1 41% scored
  3. George Pickens WR2 26% no TD

Final result

BAL 34 – 31 DAL

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

BAL
Lamar Jackson QB 15/20186 yds2 TD0 INT
Derrick Henry RB 26 car89 yds2 TD1 rec, 0 yds
Justice Hill RB 5 car33 yds0 TD
Zay Flowers WR 1 car20 yds0 TD5 rec, 84 yds
Zay Flowers WR 5/684 yds0 TD
Rashod Bateman WR 2/337 yds0 TD
Mark Andrews TE 3/524 yds0 TD
DAL
Dak Prescott QB 25/40276 yds1 TD0 INT
Javonte Williams RB 19 car98 yds1 TD2 rec, 5 yds
Tyler Goodson RB 6 car22 yds0 TD1 rec, -5 yds
KaVontae Turpin WR 1 car9 yds1 TD1 rec, 9 yds
CeeDee Lamb WR 7/8112 yds0 TD
George Pickens WR 7/1182 yds0 TD
Jake Ferguson TE 3/523 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDAL 51%—BAL wonNO PICK
Total points51.553.565UNDER · WRONG
MarginBAL by 0.1BAL −3BAL by 3DAL +3 · PUSH

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Lamar Jackson BAL 240.5233 no side 186 47 Fewer attempts (20 vs 26.7 expected) NO LEAN
Dak Prescott DAL 265.5239 UNDER 276 37 More attempts (40 vs 34.7 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Javonte Williams DAL 56.552 UNDER 98 46 More efficient (5.2 vs 3.9 yds/carry) WRONG
Derrick Henry BAL 92.5117 OVER 89 28 Less efficient (3.4 vs 5.2 yds/carry) WRONG
Justice Hill BAL 13.514 no side 33 19 More efficient (6.6 vs 3.1 yds/carry) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Zay Flowers BAL 46.5122 OVER 84 38 Less efficient (14 vs 17.8 yds/tgt) RIGHT
George Pickens DAL 66.555 UNDER 82 27 More targets (11 vs 7.6 expected) WRONG
CeeDee Lamb DAL 82.586 no side 112 26 More efficient (14 vs 10.2 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Chris Moore BAL 16.526 OVER 4 22 Fewer targets (1 vs 2.4 expected) WRONG
Rashod Bateman BAL 39.517 UNDER 37 20 More efficient (12.3 vs 5.2 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Ryan Flournoy DAL 30.521 UNDER 22 1 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.