Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

LACLAC at BUFBUF

Highmark Stadium · outdoors · grass

LAC moneyline+260
BUF moneyline-325
SpreadBUF -7
Total50.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceBUF 85%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total48.5points, both teams
Leo marginBUF by 11.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Josh Allen BUF QB1 8.929.41.12 267
Justin Herbert LAC QB1 7.329.51.12 232

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
James Cook BUF RB1 5.417.60.92 90
Omarion Hampton LAC RB1 4.115.60.92 65
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB2 4.54.50.92 22
Ray Davis BUF RB2 1.720.92 6

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Ladd McConkey LAC WR2 9.761.12 63
Khalil Shakir BUF WR1 7.361.12 44
Quentin Johnston LAC WR1 5.36.11.12 34
Tre Harris LAC WR3 8.93.51.12 33
DJ Moore BUF WR2 6.74.31.12 29
Keon Coleman BUF WR3 6.34.31.12 28
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LAC This season BUF
36 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 71
35 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 78
59 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 47
47 Overall 62
QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66 Last season QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LAC Per game, this season BUF
1.50Interceptions thrown0.00
0.50Interceptions caught0.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
0.50Fumbles forced1.50
1.00Takeaways1.50
2.50Giveaways0.00
-1.5Net turnover margin+1.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LAC Offense BUF
-0.071EPA per dropback+0.276
-1.9Completion % over expected+5.1
3.4%Interception rate1.4%
9.9%Sack rate taken6.9%
-0.152Rush EPA per carry+0.092
4.4%Explosive play rate8.3%
LAC Defense BUF
-0.053EPA allowed per play+0.043
5.35Yards allowed per play5.63
4.0%Sack rate4.0%
1.5%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LAC, right is BUF.

LAC This season BUF
2Games2
200.5Pass yards/g291
104Rush yards/g144.5
2Passing TD5
3Interceptions thrown0
265Pass yards allowed/g300.5
86.5Rush yards allowed/g95
1Interceptions forced0
LAC Last season BUF
228.4Pass yards/g238.8
119.7Rush yards/g156.6
26Passing TD33
14Interceptions thrown12
199Pass yards allowed/g177.9
107.6Rush yards allowed/g133.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert232/54 59.3%401200.5 2 / 37.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton235 1373.92
Keaton Mitchell29 333.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Quentin Johnston WR12 3/1127.3%24 120
Ladd McConkey WR22 8/1080%117 58.51
David Njoku TE2 6/875%67 33.50
BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB71

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen240/60 66.7%582291 5 / 09.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook234 1925.61
Frank Gore Jr.11 330

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR12 7/1258.3%88 440
DJ Moore WR22 5/862.5%100 501
Dalton Kincaid TE2 12/1485.7%225 112.51

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43
BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen18372/534 69.7%4224234.7 29 / 127.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook19348 17845.112
Ray Davis1958 2754.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR118 91/11678.4%876 48.74
Keon Coleman WR214 40/6363.5%450 32.15
Dalton Kincaid TE14 48/6080%682 48.77

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Omarion Hampton (LAC, 44%) and James Cook (BUF, 41%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LAC Leo’s chance
  1. Omarion Hampton RB1 44% no TD
  2. Ladd McConkey WR2 36% no TD
  3. Quentin Johnston WR1 32% no TD
BUF Leo’s chance
  1. James Cook RB1 41% scored
  2. DJ Moore WR2 34% no TD
  3. Keon Coleman WR3 20% no TD

Final result

LAC 16 – 24 BUF

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LAC
Justin Herbert QB 20/34226 yds1 TD1 INT
Omarion Hampton RB 15 car56 yds0 TD
Keaton Mitchell RB 8 car52 yds0 TD3 rec, -5 yds
Kimani Vidal RB 1 car6 yds0 TD1 rec, 14 yds
Tre Harris WR 6/776 yds0 TD
Ladd McConkey WR 4/566 yds0 TD
Quentin Johnston WR 3/640 yds0 TD
BUF
Josh Allen QB 16/26204 yds0 TD2 INT
James Cook RB 24 car154 yds1 TD
Dawson Knox TE 1 car0 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
DJ Moore WR 6/1067 yds0 TD
Ty Johnson RB 4/450 yds0 TD
Dalton Kincaid TE 2/338 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerBUF 85%—BUF wonRIGHT
Total points48.550.540UNDER · RIGHT
MarginBUF by 11.9BUF −7BUF by 8BUF −7 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Josh Allen BUF 238.5267 OVER 204 63 Fewer attempts (26 vs 29.4 expected) WRONG
Justin Herbert LAC 228.5232 no side 226 6 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
James Cook BUF 79.590 OVER 154 64 More carries (24 vs 17.6 expected) RIGHT
Keaton Mitchell LAC 14.522 OVER 52 30 More efficient (6.5 vs 4.5 yds/carry) RIGHT
Omarion Hampton LAC 58.565 OVER 56 9 Less efficient (3.7 vs 4.1 yds/carry) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tre Harris LAC 31.533 no side 76 43 More targets (7 vs 3.5 expected) NO LEAN
Khalil Shakir BUF 43.544 no side 6 38 Fewer targets (3 vs 6 expected) NO LEAN
DJ Moore BUF 49.529 UNDER 67 38 More targets (10 vs 4.3 expected) WRONG
Keon Coleman BUF —28 no side 37 9 More efficient (18.5 vs 6.3 yds/tgt)
Quentin Johnston LAC 36.534 UNDER 40 6 On target WRONG
Ladd McConkey LAC 58.563 OVER 66 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.