Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

NYJNYJ at DETDET

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

NYJ moneyline+260
DET moneyline-325
SpreadDET -7
Total49.5

New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDET 75%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total50.1points, both teams
Leo marginDET by 6.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Geno Smith NYJ QB1 6.931.21.12 241
Jared Goff DET QB1 7.436.30.92 227

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB1 4.618.40.92 76
Breece Hall NYJ RB1 3.817.11.12 74
Braelon Allen NYJ RB2 3.761.12 28
Sione Vaki DET RB2 2.90.80.92 5

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR1 7.811.40.92 77
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR2 7.98.51.12 75
Adonai Mitchell NYJ WR1 9.15.51.12 56
Jameson Williams DET WR2 8.56.20.92 45
Isaiah Williams NYJ WR3 4.62.91.12 14
Isaac TeSlaa DET WR3 5.82.30.92 11
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NYJ This season DET
40 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 66
39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 65
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 49
42 Overall 57
QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29 Last season QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYJ Per game, this season DET
0.00Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.50
2.50Fumbles forced1.00
2.50Takeaways2.00
0.00Giveaways0.50
+2.5Net turnover margin+1.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYJ Offense DET
-0.054EPA per dropback+0.210
0.0Completion % over expected+1.6
1.8%Interception rate0.9%
9.2%Sack rate taken6.2%
-0.116Rush EPA per carry-0.066
3.9%Explosive play rate6.7%
NYJ Defense DET
+0.033EPA allowed per play+0.044
5.24Yards allowed per play5.84
3.6%Sack rate4.6%
0.0%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYJ, right is DET.

NYJ This season DET
2Games2
231Pass yards/g266.5
109.5Rush yards/g115.5
1Passing TD6
0Interceptions thrown0
142.5Pass yards allowed/g329
65.5Rush yards allowed/g147
0Interceptions forced2
NYJ Last season DET
163.8Pass yards/g268.6
123.3Rush yards/g120.1
15Passing TD35
13Interceptions thrown8
226.4Pass yards allowed/g236.9
139.5Rush yards allowed/g114.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB40

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith246/65 70.8%462231 1 / 07.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall238 1313.41
Braelon Allen215 473.11

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Adonai Mitchell WR12 9/1560%123 61.50
Garrett Wilson WR22 11/1478.6%136 681
Kenyon Sadiq TE2 5/683.3%38 190
DET 2026

Quarterback Leo QB66

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff252/77 67.5%533266.5 6 / 06.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs245 2084.62
Sione Vaki23 144.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR12 19/2770.4%209 104.54
Jameson Williams WR22 6/1346.2%78 390
Sam LaPorta TE2 11/1573.3%100 501

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41
DET 2025

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff17393/578 68%4564268.5 34 / 87.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17243 1223513
David Montgomery17158 7164.58

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR117 117/17268%1401 82.411
Jameson Williams WR217 65/10263.7%1117 65.77
Sam LaPorta TE9 40/4981.6%489 54.33

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, 60%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 49%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NYJ Leo’s chance
  1. Garrett Wilson WR2 41% scored
  2. Braelon Allen RB2 35% no TD
  3. Breece Hall RB1 32% no TD
DET Leo’s chance
  1. Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 60% scored
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 49% scored 3
  3. Isaac TeSlaa WR3 20% no TD

Final result

NYJ 24 – 31 DET

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NYJ
Geno Smith QB 31/37321 yds3 TD0 INT
Breece Hall RB 13 car32 yds0 TD3 rec, 23 yds
Braelon Allen RB 4 car14 yds0 TD3 rec, 3 yds
Garrett Wilson WR 10/13107 yds1 TD
Kenyon Sadiq TE 7/8105 yds1 TD
Jeremy Ruckert TE 5/539 yds1 TD
DET
Jared Goff QB 25/32269 yds2 TD0 INT
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 20 car99 yds2 TD7 rec, 65 yds
Sione Vaki RB 6 car26 yds0 TD1 rec, 11 yds
Isaac TeSlaa WR 3/366 yds0 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 7/865 yds1 TD
Jameson Williams WR 4/449 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDET 75%—DET wonRIGHT
Total points50.148.555OVER · RIGHT
MarginDET by 6.8DET −6.5DET by 7no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Geno Smith NYJ 230.5241 no side 321 80 More efficient (8.7 vs 6.9 yds/att) NO LEAN
Jared Goff DET 261.5227 UNDER 269 42 More efficient (8.4 vs 7.4 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Breece Hall NYJ 60.574 OVER 32 42 Less efficient (2.5 vs 3.8 yds/carry) WRONG
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 89.576 UNDER 99 23 More carries (20 vs 18.4 expected) WRONG
Sione Vaki DET 10.55 UNDER 26 21 More carries (6 vs 0.8 expected) WRONG
Braelon Allen NYJ 17.528 OVER 14 14 Fewer carries (4 vs 6 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 78.577 no side 19 58 Less efficient (2.4 vs 7.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Isaac TeSlaa DET 15.511 UNDER 66 55 More efficient (22 vs 5.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Garrett Wilson NYJ 76.575 no side 107 32 More targets (13 vs 8.5 expected) NO LEAN
Isaiah Williams NYJ 25.514 UNDER 21 7 On target RIGHT
Jameson Williams DET 54.545 UNDER 49 4 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.