Week 3 · Sunday 16:05

ARIARI at SFSF

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · Division game

ARI moneyline+310
SF moneyline-395
SpreadSF -7.5
Total48.5

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSF 78%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45points, both teams
Leo marginSF by 15.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Brock Purdy SF QB1 8.229.812 234
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 6.436.40.92 210

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Christian McCaffrey SF RB2 4.214.112 64
Kaelon Black SF RB1 4.110.512 47
Jeremiyah Love ARI RB2 3.51012 38
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB1 3.29.712 34

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Mike Evans SF WR2 9.46.412 59
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF WR1 7.36.912 49
Michael Wilson ARI WR1 6.57.30.92 43
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR2 8.34.80.92 36
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI WR3 7.14.60.92 29
KhaDarel Hodge SF WR3 4.70.912 3
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

ARI This season SF
48 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 73
45 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 66
43 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 42
44 Overall 54
QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39 Last season QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ARI Per game, this season SF
0.50Interceptions thrown0.50
0.50Interceptions caught0.50
0.00Fumbles lost0.00
1.50Fumbles forced1.50
2.00Takeaways2.00
0.50Giveaways0.50
+1.5Net turnover margin+1.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ARI Offense SF
+0.009EPA per dropback+0.268
+0.9Completion % over expected+7.1
1.6%Interception rate2.6%
7.0%Sack rate taken3.0%
-0.090Rush EPA per carry-0.007
4.1%Explosive play rate5.0%
ARI Defense SF
+0.045EPA allowed per play+0.020
5.78Yards allowed per play5.53
3.0%Sack rate2.5%
0.9%Interception rate forced0.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ARI, right is SF.

ARI This season SF
2Games2
186Pass yards/g246
93Rush yards/g134.5
2Passing TD5
1Interceptions thrown1
222Pass yards allowed/g182.5
121.5Rush yards allowed/g112
1Interceptions forced1
ARI Last season SF
256.1Pass yards/g250.2
93.1Rush yards/g105.3
29Passing TD36
11Interceptions thrown19
242.8Pass yards allowed/g231.7
126.9Rush yards allowed/g113.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett244/65 67.7%372186 2 / 15.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tyler Allgeier222 713.20
Jeremiyah Love220 703.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR12 7/1450%74 370
Kendrick Bourne WR22 10/1190.9%86 430
Trey McBride TE2 17/2373.9%136 682
SF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB73

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy245/56 80.4%492246 5 / 18.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kaelon Black221 904.30
Christian McCaffrey220 914.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR12 9/1181.8%79 39.51
Mike Evans WR22 9/1090%103 51.51
George Kittle TE2 6/966.7%92 461

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett14315/485 64.9%3366240.4 23 / 86.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Michael Carter1392 3333.61
Bam Knight1282 2693.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR117 78/12661.9%1006 59.27
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR212 41/7356.2%608 50.74
Trey McBride TE17 126/16974.6%1239 72.911
SF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy11230/342 67.3%2569233.5 22 / 137.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey19337 12853.810
Brian Robinson1995 4044.32

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jauan Jennings WR117 58/9859.2%711 41.89
Ricky Pearsall WR210 36/5565.5%528 52.80
George Kittle TE12 58/7181.7%634 52.87

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Christian McCaffrey (SF, 51%) and Jeremiyah Love (ARI, 34%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ARI Leo’s chance
  1. Jeremiyah Love RB2 34% scored
  2. Tyler Allgeier RB1 26% no TD
  3. Michael Wilson WR1 21% scored
SF Leo’s chance
  1. Christian McCaffrey RB2 51% scored
  2. Mike Evans WR2 32% scored
  3. Deebo Samuel Sr. WR1 31% scored

Final result

ARI 30 – 36 SF

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB 38/52280 yds2 TD0 INT
Jeremiyah Love RB 21 car90 yds0 TD5 rec, 19 yds
Tyler Allgeier RB 2 car-1 yds0 TD4 rec, 10 yds
Michael Wilson WR 11/1789 yds1 TD
Trey McBride TE 9/1175 yds0 TD
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 3/540 yds0 TD
SF
Brock Purdy QB 15/27297 yds4 TD0 INT
Christian McCaffrey RB 15 car75 yds1 TD4 rec, 41 yds
Kaelon Black RB 4 car17 yds0 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR 2 car14 yds0 TD
George Kittle TE 6/782 yds2 TD
Jordan Watkins WR 2/260 yds0 TD
Christian McCaffrey RB 4/541 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSF 78%—SF wonRIGHT
Total points4548.566UNDER · WRONG
MarginSF by 15.9SF −7.5SF by 6SF −7.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jacoby Brissett ARI 225.5210 UNDER 280 70 More attempts (52 vs 36.4 expected) WRONG
Brock Purdy SF 242.5234 no side 297 63 More efficient (11 vs 8.2 yds/att) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jeremiyah Love ARI 41.538 UNDER 90 52 More carries (21 vs 10 expected) WRONG
Tyler Allgeier ARI 34.534 no side -1 35 Fewer carries (2 vs 9.7 expected) NO LEAN
Kaelon Black SF 32.547 OVER 17 30 Fewer carries (4 vs 10.5 expected) WRONG
Christian McCaffrey SF 58.564 OVER 75 11 More efficient (5 vs 4.2 yds/carry) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Michael Wilson ARI 47.543 UNDER 89 46 More targets (17 vs 7.3 expected) WRONG
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF 41.549 OVER 80 31 RIGHT
Mike Evans SF 55.559 OVER 34 25 Less efficient (5.7 vs 9.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Kendrick Bourne ARI 23.536 OVER 22 14 Fewer targets (3 vs 4.8 expected) WRONG
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 32.529 UNDER 40 11 More efficient (8 vs 7.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
KhaDarel Hodge SF —3 no side 0 3 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.