Week 3 · Monday 20:15

PHIPHI at CHICHI

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

PHI moneyline-198
CHI moneyline+164
SpreadPHI -3.5
Total42.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 28, 3:53 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCHI 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total47points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 2.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jalen Hurts PHI QB1 7.329.712 217
Tyson Bagent CHI QB1 6.9240.91 145

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
D'Andre Swift CHI RB1 4.815.512 81
Kyle Monangai CHI RB2 5.61012 62
Saquon Barkley PHI RB1 413.512 60
Tank Bigsby PHI RB2 3.75.612 25

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
DeVonta Smith PHI WR1 9.27.812 72
Rome Odunze CHI WR3 10.35.80.92 53
Dontayvion Wicks PHI WR2 11.14.112 46
Luther Burden III CHI WR2 8.94.90.92 39
Kalif Raymond CHI WR1 8.14.10.92 29
Makai Lemon PHI WR3 6.42.512 15
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

PHI This season CHI
59 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 55
53 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 63
52 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 44
53 Overall 53
QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59 Last season QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PHI Per game, this season CHI
1.00Interceptions thrown0.50
0.00Interceptions caught0.50
0.00Fumbles lost1.00
1.00Fumbles forced0.50
1.00Takeaways1.00
1.00Giveaways1.50
0Net turnover margin-0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PHI Offense CHI
+0.083EPA per dropback+0.130
+4.8Completion % over expected-0.4
2.0%Interception rate1.7%
7.2%Sack rate taken5.3%
-0.035Rush EPA per carry+0.075
5.7%Explosive play rate6.8%
PHI Defense CHI
-0.027EPA allowed per play+0.057
5.19Yards allowed per play6.27
3.4%Sack rate3.8%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PHI, right is CHI.

PHI This season CHI
2Games2
233.5Pass yards/g230.5
112.5Rush yards/g212.5
5Passing TD2
2Interceptions thrown1
173.5Pass yards allowed/g252
127Rush yards allowed/g122
0Interceptions forced1
PHI Last season CHI
203.7Pass yards/g242.6
118.2Rush yards/g142.6
27Passing TD32
7Interceptions thrown12
209.3Pass yards allowed/g244.6
121.7Rush yards allowed/g131.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB59

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts240/62 64.5%467233.5 5 / 27.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley219 924.80
Tank Bigsby214 362.61

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeVonta Smith WR12 13/1968.4%170 851
Dontayvion Wicks WR22 7/1070%147 73.51
Dallas Goedert TE2 5/771.4%81 40.52
CHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB55

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams236/55 65.5%407203.5 2 / 17.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift234 16953
Kyle Monangai220 1477.41

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Kalif Raymond WR12 13/1492.9%124 620
Luther Burden III WR22 8/1266.7%95 47.50
Colston Loveland TE2 1/520%3 1.50

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts17314/489 64.2%3392199.5 26 / 66.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley17306 12464.17
Tank Bigsby1562 3635.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
A.J. Brown WR116 81/12863.3%1028 64.37
DeVonta Smith WR218 85/12468.5%1078 59.94
Dallas Goedert TE16 64/8971.9%624 3912
CHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams19377/658 57.3%4560240 31 / 126.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift18255 12174.810
Kyle Monangai19190 8464.55

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rome Odunze WR114 48/10247.1%749 53.56
DJ Moore WR219 61/10061%798 428
Colston Loveland TE18 70/10765.4%906 50.36

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: D'Andre Swift (CHI, 59%) and Kyle Monangai (CHI, 33%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
PHI Leo’s chance
  1. DeVonta Smith WR1 29% no TD
  2. Tank Bigsby RB2 27% no TD
  3. Dontayvion Wicks WR2 27% no TD
CHI Leo’s chance
  1. D'Andre Swift RB1 59% no TD
  2. Kyle Monangai RB2 33% no TD
  3. Rome Odunze WR3 23% no TD

Final result

PHI 7 – 27 CHI

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

PHI
Jalen Hurts QB 16/25153 yds0 TD1 INT
Saquon Barkley RB 15 car82 yds0 TD1 rec, -2 yds
DeVonta Smith WR 6/865 yds0 TD
Dontayvion Wicks WR 2/532 yds0 TD
Makai Lemon WR 3/429 yds0 TD
CHI
Case Keenum QB 24/34247 yds2 TD0 INT
D'Andre Swift RB 20 car84 yds0 TD2 rec, 4 yds
Kyle Monangai RB 10 car31 yds0 TD
Luther Burden III WR 1 car7 yds0 TD7 rec, 61 yds
Kalif Raymond WR 6/790 yds1 TD
Luther Burden III WR 7/1161 yds1 TD
Rome Odunze WR 3/644 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCHI 54%—CHI wonNO PICK
Total points4741.534OVER · WRONG
MarginCHI by 2.9PHI −3.5CHI by 20CHI +3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jalen Hurts PHI 216.5217 no side 153 64 Fewer attempts (25 vs 29.7 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kyle Monangai CHI 39.562 OVER 31 31 Less efficient (3.1 vs 5.6 yds/carry) WRONG
Tank Bigsby PHI 12.525 OVER 0 25 WRONG
Saquon Barkley PHI 72.560 UNDER 82 22 More efficient (5.5 vs 4 yds/carry) WRONG
D'Andre Swift CHI 62.581 OVER 84 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kalif Raymond CHI 23.529 OVER 90 61 More efficient (12.9 vs 8.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Luther Burden III CHI 36.539 OVER 61 22 More targets (11 vs 4.9 expected) RIGHT
Dontayvion Wicks PHI 42.546 OVER 32 14 Less efficient (6.4 vs 11.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Makai Lemon PHI 27.515 UNDER 29 14 More targets (4 vs 2.5 expected) WRONG
Rome Odunze CHI 26.553 OVER 44 9 Less efficient (7.3 vs 10.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
DeVonta Smith PHI 72.572 no side 65 7 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.