Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

CINCIN at PITPIT

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · Division game

CIN moneyline-180
PIT moneyline+150
SpreadCIN -3.5
Total42.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCIN 58%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44points, both teams
Leo marginCIN by 1.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 5.835.31.12 215
Joe Burrow CIN QB1 734.10.92 213

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Chase Brown CIN RB1 4.115.812 70
Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 4.411.80.92 49
Samaje Perine CIN RB2 3.74.612 21
Travis Homer PIT RB2 3.91.10.91 7

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tee Higgins CIN WR1 9.67.20.92 63
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR2 6.69.40.92 57
DK Metcalf PIT WR1 6.27.91.12 52
Germie Bernard PIT WR2 4.47.21.11 33
Roman Wilson PIT WR3 5.63.71.12 21
Dohnte Meyers CIN WR3 91.10.92 8
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CIN This season PIT
49 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 40
50 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 37
46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 63
48 Overall 50
QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34 Last season QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CIN Per game, this season PIT
0.50Interceptions thrown0.50
0.00Interceptions caught1.50
0.00Fumbles lost1.00
2.00Fumbles forced2.00
2.00Takeaways3.50
0.50Giveaways1.50
+1.5Net turnover margin+2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CIN Offense PIT
-0.002EPA per dropback-0.115
+0.9Completion % over expected-1.1
2.3%Interception rate1.6%
6.3%Sack rate taken6.1%
-0.024Rush EPA per carry-0.063
5.4%Explosive play rate4.5%
CIN Defense PIT
+0.022EPA allowed per play-0.039
6.09Yards allowed per play5.67
4.2%Sack rate5.0%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CIN, right is PIT.

CIN This season PIT
2Games2
230.5Pass yards/g204
95.5Rush yards/g74.5
3Passing TD1
1Interceptions thrown1
284.5Pass yards allowed/g175.5
74.5Rush yards allowed/g128
0Interceptions forced3
CIN Last season PIT
249.6Pass yards/g210
93.6Rush yards/g101.1
36Passing TD26
17Interceptions thrown10
245.6Pass yards allowed/g260.4
147.1Rush yards allowed/g115.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow245/66 68.2%461230.5 3 / 17

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown236 1363.81
Samaje Perine27 263.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tee Higgins WR12 8/1650%154 770
Ja'Marr Chase WR22 9/1369.2%87 43.52
Mike Gesicki TE1 5/771.4%78 781
PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB40

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers247/79 59.5%408204 1 / 15.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren221 894.20
Rico Dowdle215 372.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR12 8/1942.1%67 33.50
Roman Wilson WR22 8/1266.7%54 270
Pat Freiermuth TE2 9/1090%78 391

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow8173/259 66.8%1809226.1 17 / 57

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown17232 10194.46
Samaje Perine1584 3824.53

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ja'Marr Chase WR116 125/18567.6%1412 88.38
Tee Higgins WR215 59/9860.2%846 56.411
Mike Gesicki TE12 28/4266.7%307 25.62
PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers17344/531 64.8%3468204 24 / 86.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren17223 10014.56
Kenny Gainwell18120 5574.65

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR116 61/10458.7%892 55.86
Calvin Austin III WR215 34/6155.7%380 25.33
Jonnu Smith TE18 40/5770.2%221 12.32

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, 44%) and Chase Brown (CIN, 35%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CIN Leo’s chance
  1. Ja'Marr Chase WR2 44% scored
  2. Chase Brown RB1 35% no TD
  3. Tee Higgins WR1 31% scored
PIT Leo’s chance
  1. DK Metcalf WR1 24% scored
  2. Germie Bernard WR2 23% no TD
  3. Jaylen Warren RB1 20% no TD

Final result

CIN 27 – 30 PIT

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CIN
Joe Burrow QB 28/37282 yds3 TD0 INT
Chase Brown RB 13 car61 yds0 TD2 rec, 8 yds
Samaje Perine RB 3 car9 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Ja'Marr Chase WR 9/1298 yds1 TD
Tee Higgins WR 6/790 yds1 TD
Mike Gesicki TE 3/337 yds1 TD
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB 19/34292 yds3 TD1 INT
Jaylen Warren RB 17 car127 yds0 TD3 rec, 49 yds
Travis Homer RB 1 car0 yds0 TD
Pat Freiermuth TE 1 car1 yds0 TD2 rec, 30 yds
Darnell Washington TE 3/467 yds0 TD
Roman Wilson WR 3/660 yds1 TD
Jaylen Warren RB 3/449 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCIN 58%—PIT wonNO PICK
Total points4442.557OVER · RIGHT
MarginCIN by 1.2CIN −3.5PIT by 3PIT +3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Aaron Rodgers PIT 225.5215 no side 292 77 More efficient (8.6 vs 5.8 yds/att) NO LEAN
Joe Burrow CIN 253.5213 UNDER 282 69 More efficient (7.6 vs 7 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jaylen Warren PIT 57.549 UNDER 127 78 More efficient (7.5 vs 4.4 yds/carry) WRONG
Samaje Perine CIN 14.521 OVER 9 12 Fewer carries (3 vs 4.6 expected) WRONG
Chase Brown CIN 63.570 OVER 61 9 Fewer carries (13 vs 15.8 expected) WRONG
Travis Homer PIT —7 no side 0 7 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ja'Marr Chase CIN 77.557 UNDER 98 41 More efficient (8.2 vs 6.6 yds/tgt) WRONG
Roman Wilson PIT 23.521 UNDER 60 39 More efficient (10 vs 5.6 yds/tgt) WRONG
Tee Higgins CIN 52.563 OVER 90 27 More efficient (12.9 vs 9.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Dohnte Meyers CIN —8 no side 29 21 More targets (5 vs 1.1 expected)
DK Metcalf PIT 52.552 no side 31 21 Fewer targets (5 vs 7.9 expected) NO LEAN
Germie Bernard PIT —33 no side 14 19 Fewer targets (1 vs 7.2 expected)

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.