Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

HOUHOU at INDIND

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf · Division game

HOU moneyline-125
IND moneyline+105
SpreadHOU -1.5
Total41.5

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceIND 63%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total49points, both teams
Leo marginIND by 0.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
C.J. Stroud HOU QB1 6.939.11.22 304
Daniel Jones IND QB1 7.131.21.12 227

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 4.720.30.92 90
David Montgomery HOU RB1 3.511.11.22 48
Woody Marks HOU RB2 3.210.41.22 42
Seth McGowan IND RB2 010.92 3

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Josh Downs IND WR1 7.65.91.12 47
Kayshon Boutte HOU WR3 10.73.81.22 45
Keenan Allen IND WR2 4.86.41.12 32
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR1 5.651.22 31
Jared Wayne HOU WR2 9.22.51.22 25
Laquon Treadwell IND WR3 5.10.81.12 3
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

HOU This season IND
43 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 48
44 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 55
65 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 35
55 Overall 45
QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75 Last season QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

HOU Per game, this season IND
0.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.50
0.50Fumbles forced0.50
0.50Takeaways0.50
1.00Giveaways1.50
-0.5Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

HOU Offense IND
-0.019EPA per dropback+0.036
-3.2Completion % over expected+0.2
1.4%Interception rate2.8%
5.8%Sack rate taken4.4%
-0.098Rush EPA per carry+0.092
5.4%Explosive play rate5.3%
HOU Defense IND
-0.076EPA allowed per play+0.087
5.5Yards allowed per play6.2
5.5%Sack rate3.3%
1.3%Interception rate forced0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is HOU, right is IND.

HOU This season IND
2Games2
313.5Pass yards/g188
92Rush yards/g110.5
2Passing TD2
0Interceptions thrown2
270.5Pass yards allowed/g353
85.5Rush yards allowed/g177
0Interceptions forced0
HOU Last season IND
232.5Pass yards/g240.3
108.6Rush yards/g118.1
26Passing TD25
14Interceptions thrown14
200.7Pass yards allowed/g262.5
92.7Rush yards allowed/g101.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud256/93 60.2%627313.5 2 / 06.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
David Montgomery226 702.72
Woody Marks217 502.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Hutchinson WR12 6/1540%69 34.50
Nico Collins WR21 7/1070%75 751
Dalton Schultz TE2 16/2272.7%175 87.50
IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones241/62 66.1%376188 2 / 26.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor243 1904.44
Seth McGowan22 000

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Josh Downs WR12 9/1369.2%109 54.50
Keenan Allen WR22 7/1163.6%37 18.50
Tyler Warren TE2 9/1275%34 172

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud16314/502 62.5%3503218.9 21 / 137

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks18229 8323.63
Nick Chubb17136 5684.23

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR116 74/12758.3%1138 71.16
Jayden Higgins WR219 50/8261%623 32.86
Dalton Schultz TE19 87/11277.7%836 443
IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jonathan Taylor (IND, 68%) and David Montgomery (HOU, 52%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
HOU Leo’s chance
  1. David Montgomery RB1 52% no TD
  2. Kayshon Boutte WR3 26% no TD
  3. Jared Wayne WR2 18% no TD
IND Leo’s chance
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB1 68% no TD
  2. Seth McGowan RB2 21% no TD
  3. Josh Downs WR1 17% no TD

Final result

HOU 17 – 19 IND

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

HOU
C.J. Stroud QB 16/27167 yds1 TD0 INT
David Montgomery RB 11 car33 yds0 TD2 rec, 15 yds
Woody Marks RB 5 car15 yds1 TD1 rec, 6 yds
Xavier Hutchinson WR 2 car4 yds0 TD3 rec, 51 yds
Xavier Hutchinson WR 3/651 yds0 TD
Dalton Schultz TE 3/330 yds0 TD
Kayshon Boutte WR 2/221 yds0 TD
IND
Daniel Jones QB 24/36235 yds1 TD1 INT
Jonathan Taylor RB 23 car68 yds0 TD2 rec, 4 yds
Seth McGowan RB 4 car14 yds0 TD
Tyler Warren TE 1 car2 yds0 TD9 rec, 55 yds
Josh Downs WR 5/1177 yds0 TD
Keenan Allen WR 6/963 yds1 TD
Tyler Warren TE 9/1055 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerIND 63%—IND wonRIGHT
Total points4942.536OVER · WRONG
MarginIND by 0.6HOU −1.5IND by 2IND +1.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
C.J. Stroud HOU 236.5304 OVER 167 137 Fewer attempts (27 vs 39.1 expected) WRONG
Daniel Jones IND 212.5227 OVER 235 8 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Woody Marks HOU 27.542 OVER 15 27 Fewer carries (5 vs 10.4 expected) WRONG
Jonathan Taylor IND 81.590 OVER 68 22 Less efficient (3 vs 4.7 yds/carry) WRONG
David Montgomery HOU 49.548 no side 33 15 Less efficient (3 vs 3.5 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Seth McGowan IND —3 no side 14 11 More efficient (3.5 vs 0 yds/carry)

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Keenan Allen IND 32.532 no side 63 31 More efficient (7 vs 4.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Josh Downs IND 50.547 UNDER 77 30 More targets (11 vs 5.9 expected) WRONG
Kayshon Boutte HOU 37.545 OVER 21 24 Fewer targets (2 vs 3.8 expected) WRONG
Xavier Hutchinson HOU 38.531 UNDER 51 20 More efficient (8.5 vs 5.6 yds/tgt) WRONG
Laquon Treadwell IND 18.53 UNDER 20 17 More efficient (20 vs 5.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jared Wayne HOU 15.525 OVER 20 5 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.