Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Friday, September 25, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
17
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
14
Updated Sep 25, 8:52 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.3%
- Market probability
- 73.8%
- Model vs market
- -0.5%
- Current price
- -300
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 33 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 6.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 30.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.3% win probability, the market is at 73.8%, and the setup carries a 9.5/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 33 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.5/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.7/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.2 points from 96.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.3%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.7/10
- Model probability
- 69.6%
- Market probability
- 51.6%
- Model vs market
- +17.9%
- Current price
- -111
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 6.1/10 versus 8.1/10. Miami Marlins has used 25.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Atlanta Braves is using a bullpen game. Ray Kerr is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.5/10 risk with 6.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Atlanta Braves versus 4.3/10 for Miami Marlins.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Atlanta Braves is using a bullpen game. Ray Kerr is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.5/10 risk with 6.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Atlanta Braves versus 4.3/10 for Miami Marlins.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 -115
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 57.5%
- Market probability
- 62.8%
- Model vs market
- -5.2%
- Current price
- -180
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Milwaukee Brewers is 8.4/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 8.1/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 57.5% win probability, the market is at 62.8%, and the setup carries a 7.0/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.5/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 7.4/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 7.6 points from 65.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 57.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 67.5%
- Market probability
- 53.8%
- Model vs market
- +13.8%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Cleveland Guardians is 8.0/10 and Kansas City Royals is 9.3/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 67.5% win probability, the market is at 53.8%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 8 rating points. Cleveland Guardians has the lower-risk bullpen, 6.8/10 versus 10.0/10. Kansas City Royals has 28.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Kansas City Royals's pen has been below average lately (3.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 16.2 points from 83.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 67.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 58.4%
- Market probability
- 52.8%
- Model vs market
- +5.6%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.7/10 versus 4.8/10, which adds late-game risk. New York Yankees has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 70.8%
- Market probability
- 61.5%
- Model vs market
- +9.3%
- Current price
- -167
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies has the fresher bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 7.1/10. Tampa Bay Rays has used 23.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 9 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 -142
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 68.7%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- +9.8%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 7.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 53.5%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Model vs market
- +0.1%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.3/10 versus 6.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Texas Rangers has used 31.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 -102
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 72.4%
- Market probability
- 67.1%
- Model vs market
- +5.3%
- Current price
- -220
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 7.2/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Hunter Brown Over 5.5 -108
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 62.9%
- Model vs market
- +10.8%
- Current price
- -177
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Houston Astros is 10.0/10 and Athletics is 8.6/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 -108
Pitcher Ks: Jackson Jobe Over 5.5 +125
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 61.6%
- Market probability
- 51.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.1%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 6.6/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 7.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 -120
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 72.4%
- Market probability
- 45.5%
- Model vs market
- +26.9%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.1/10 versus 5.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 31.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
New York Mets is using a bullpen game. Jefry Yan is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.2/10 risk with 6.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Washington Nationals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.7/10 for Washington Nationals versus 6.6/10 for New York Mets.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
New York Mets is using a bullpen game. Jefry Yan is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.2/10 risk with 6.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Washington Nationals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.7/10 for Washington Nationals versus 6.6/10 for New York Mets.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 52.6%
- Market probability
- 52.9%
- Model vs market
- -0.3%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.3/10 versus 6.1/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 27.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 63.6%
- Market probability
- 37.3%
- Model vs market
- +26.3%
- Current price
- +166
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Los Angeles Angels is 8.0/10 and Seattle Mariners is 7.8/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 68.9%
- Market probability
- 49.9%
- Model vs market
- +19.0%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 4.8/10 versus 7.7/10. New York Yankees has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
New York Yankees is using a bullpen game. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to cover about 2.5 innings, leaving roughly 6.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.8/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Baltimore Orioles. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Baltimore Orioles versus 4.9/10 for New York Yankees.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
New York Yankees is using a bullpen game. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to cover about 2.5 innings, leaving roughly 6.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.8/10 risk with 4.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Baltimore Orioles. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Baltimore Orioles versus 4.9/10 for New York Yankees.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 55.8%
- Market probability
- 48.1%
- Model vs market
- +7.7%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Boston Red Sox 4.8/10, Chicago Cubs 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Boston Red Sox is using a bullpen game. Alec Gamboa is expected to cover about 1.6 innings, leaving roughly 7.4 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 3.9/10 risk with 6.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for Boston Red Sox versus 6.0/10 for Chicago Cubs.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox is using a bullpen game. Alec Gamboa is expected to cover about 1.6 innings, leaving roughly 7.4 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 3.9/10 risk with 6.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for Boston Red Sox versus 6.0/10 for Chicago Cubs.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.0/10
- Model probability
- 62.3%
- Market probability
- 48.0%
- Model vs market
- +14.3%
- Current price
- +105
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Boston Red Sox 4.8/10, Chicago Cubs 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.