MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Reds vs Blue Jays
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Reds 5, Blue Jays 6
How the analysis held up
Toronto Blue Jays won, the side Leo's model favored.
José Soriano (Toronto Blue Jays) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Nick Lodolo actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 5 ER (15.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 6.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 60°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 52 | 64 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.97 | 3.91 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.48 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.9 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.6% | 12.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.1% | 22.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 9.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.0% | 61.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.0% | 38.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives José Soriano a 12-point edge over Nick Lodolo, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.91 vs 1.66) and K/9 (8.6 vs 6.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Blue Jays carry the better run differential per game (-0.29 against -1.00).
| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.628 | 0.690 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.277 | 0.309 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.0% | 16.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.727 (+0.027 vs szn) | 0.727 (+0.034 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.52 (+0.394 vs szn) | 4.37 (+0.358 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 (+0.009 vs szn) | 0.323 (+0.017 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.1% (+0.6% vs szn) | 16.5% (-2.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.017 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 26.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-85 | 77-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.00 | -0.29 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.13 | 4.01 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.13 | 4.30 |
| Season OPS | 0.700 | 0.692 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.5% | 19.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.691 | 0.652 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.6/10, Effective | 6.4/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 28.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.20 | 2.22 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.30 | 1.16 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.