MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Nationals Park · 6:45 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Mets vs Nationals
The case for Washington Nationals
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Mets 6, Nationals 7
How the analysis held up
Washington Nationals won, the side Leo's model favored.
Jefry Yan (New York Mets) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Andrew Alvarez actually pitched better tonight: 4.2 IP, 5 ER (9.64 ERA) against 1.2 IP, 2 ER (10.80 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The New York Mets bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 5 earned runs allowed over 6.1 relief innings (7.11 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.1 innings (2.08 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
New York Mets scored 6, 2.9 more than the 3.1 pregame projection.
Washington Nationals scored 7, 3.4 more than the 3.6 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Washington Nationals |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Nationals Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jefry Yan vs Andrew Alvarez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 68°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 43 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.87 | 3.43 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.72 | 1.30 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.5 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.5% | 13.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.1% | 24.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 15.6% | 10.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 6.6 | 4.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.9% | 57.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 44.1% | 42.4% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the New York Mets pitching plan the edge over Andrew Alvarez (20 points on Leo's pitcher score). Jefry Yan is projected for only 1⅔ innings, with the New York Mets bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the New York Mets blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Andrew Alvarez's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the New York Mets, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Jefry Yan (about 1⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 2.79 rather than Jefry Yan's own 4.87. Whole-game, that is 2.79 for the New York Mets against 3.59 on the other side, so the blended read leans New York Mets.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.23 against +0.06).
| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.701 | 0.665 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.307 | 0.292 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.8% | 20.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.724 (+0.021 vs szn) | 0.697 (-0.048 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.96 (+0.664 vs szn) | 4.54 (-0.549 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 (+0.007 vs szn) | 0.306 (-0.022 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.9% (-1.3% vs szn) | 22.2% |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.306.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-86 | 75-84 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.23 | +0.06 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.30 | 5.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.53 | 5.03 |
| Season OPS | 0.702 | 0.744 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.3% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.678 | Not available |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Nationals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.0/10, Normal | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.2/10, Normal | 9.3/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 31.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.29 | 3.77 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.02 | 1.65 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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