MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Pirates vs Tigers
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Pirates 7, Tigers 8
How the analysis held up
Detroit Tigers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 52.6 points — the team-strength model favored Detroit Tigers, the run-projection model favored Pittsburgh Pirates. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Jackson Jobe (Detroit Tigers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Bubba Chandler: 5.1 IP, 2 ER (3.38 ERA) against 2.2 IP, 6 ER (20.25 ERA). The edge held up.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 5.1 innings (1.69 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Detroit Tigers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 5 earned runs allowed over 3.2 relief innings (12.27 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 7, 2.7 more than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Detroit Tigers scored 8, 5.8 more than the 2.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 58°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 56 | 66 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.62 | 3.91 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 10.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.9% | 18.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.8% | 26.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jackson Jobe a 10-point edge over Bubba Chandler, driven mainly by K-BB% (18.1% vs 8.9%) and BB/9 (3.1 vs 4.7).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Tigers are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.17 against +0.45).
| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.741 | 0.833 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.328 | 0.368 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.7% | 19.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.726 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.721 |
| Runs per game | 3.96 (-0.788 vs szn) | 4.46 (-0.017 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.324 | 0.321 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.1% (-2.0% vs szn) | 23.8% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.321.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-78 | 74-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.17 | +0.45 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.75 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.58 | 4.03 |
| Season OPS | 0.735 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.751 | 0.724 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 5.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.5/10, Tired | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 30.7 | 28.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.93 | 3.21 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 1.14 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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