MLB matchup analysis
Rockies vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rockies vs White Sox
The case for Chicago White Sox
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rockies 1, White Sox 6
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won, the side Leo's model favored.
Sean Burke (Chicago White Sox), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tomoyuki Sugano: 5.1 IP, 1 ER (1.69 ERA) against 6.2 IP, 4 ER (5.40 ERA). The edge held up.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 2 earned runs allowed over 1.1 relief innings (13.50 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Colorado Rockies scored 1, 2.6 fewer than the 3.6 pregame projection.
Chicago White Sox scored 6, 1.8 more than the 4.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Sean Burke |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 59°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 53 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.41 | 3.37 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.5 | 9.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.8% | 17.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 14.4% | 25.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.6% | 8.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.0% | 37.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.0% | 62.2% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Sean Burke a 18-point edge over Tomoyuki Sugano, driven mainly by K/9 (9.7 vs 5.5) and HR/9 (1.00 vs 1.90).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season White Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.36 against -1.21).
| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 0-10 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.758 | 0.716 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.333 | 0.323 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.3% | 26.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.744 (+0.006 vs szn) | 0.713 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.21 (-0.417 vs szn) | 4.82 (+0.034 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.327 | 0.319 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.8% | 25.2% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.327 wOBA to 0.319. White Sox are striking out at 25.2% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 57-102 | 82-77 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.21 | +0.36 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.63 | 4.79 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.84 | 4.43 |
| Season OPS | 0.740 | 0.725 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.754 | 0.716 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rockies and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rockies | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 7.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.4/10, Effective | 3.6/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 7.9/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.0 | 28.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.57 | 5.65 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.00 | 1.64 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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