MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Athletics Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Sutter Health Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Astros vs Athletics
The case for Houston Astros
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Astros 5, Athletics 6
How the analysis held up
Athletics won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 63.5 points — the team-strength model favored Houston Astros, the run-projection model favored Athletics. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Jacob Lopez actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA) against 5.1 IP, 1 ER (1.69 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 2.2 innings (13.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Houston Astros pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Athletics bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 innings (12.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Likely driver: the Houston Astros bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 2.2 relief innings (13.50 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame, and the opposing starter (1.50 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Athletics |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Sutter Health Park |
| Starting pitchers | Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 74°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 46 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.26 | 5.68 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.27 | 1.53 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.6 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.2% | 9.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.1% | 20.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.9% | 10.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 62.4% | 32.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 37.6% | 67.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Hunter Brown a 23-point edge over Jacob Lopez, driven mainly by ERA (3.26 vs 5.68) and K/9 (10.6 vs 8.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Athletics are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Astros carry the better run differential per game (-0.33 against -1.36).
| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.753 | 0.753 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.327 | 0.331 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.3% | 21.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.740 (+0.018 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.82 (-0.629 vs szn) | 4.41 (+0.051 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.311 (-0.007 vs szn) | 0.326 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.3% (+1.3% vs szn) | 21.7% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Athletics have been the better offense, 0.326 wOBA to 0.311.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 79-80 | 63-96 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.33 | -1.36 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.45 | 4.36 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.78 | 5.72 |
| Season OPS | 0.727 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.710 | 0.724 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Athletics are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 8.6/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.9/10, Average | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 8.9/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 33.3 | 28.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.32 | 4.40 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.32 | 1.53 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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