MLB matchup analysis
Braves vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at loanDepot park · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Braves vs Marlins
The case for Atlanta Braves
The case for Miami Marlins
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Braves 0, Marlins 3
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Eury Pérez (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ray Kerr: 9.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
Atlanta Braves scored 0, 4.6 fewer than the 4.6 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Atlanta Braves's offense scored 4.6 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 18% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 3 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 76 | 66 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.47 | 3.93 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.60 | 1.22 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.4 | 9.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.6% | 15.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.7% | 25.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 3.0% | 10.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 42.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.0% | 57.5% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Eury Pérez the edge over the Atlanta Braves pitching plan. Ray Kerr is projected for only 3 innings, with the Atlanta Braves bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Eury Pérez's own line against the Atlanta Braves blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Atlanta Braves, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Ray Kerr (about 3 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.15 rather than Ray Kerr's own 1.47. Whole-game, that is 4.10 for the Miami Marlins against 4.15 on the other side, so the blended read leans Miami Marlins.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.71 against +0.04).
| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.769 | 0.687 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.338 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.0% | 23.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.708 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.728 |
| Runs per game | 4.04 (-0.533 vs szn) | 4.78 (+0.359 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.311 | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.4% | 22.7% (+0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Marlins have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.311.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 93-66 | 78-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.71 | +0.04 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.57 | 4.42 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.86 | 4.38 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.725 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 21.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.736 | 0.686 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Braves and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Braves | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.2/10, Effective | 4.3/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.5/10, Normal | 8.5/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 25.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.52 | 5.26 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.74 | 1.36 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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