MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Red Sox (Game 1) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Fenway Park · 1:05 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Cubs vs Red Sox
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Chicago Cubs
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Cubs 3, Red Sox 4
How the analysis held up
Boston Red Sox won, the side Leo's model favored.
Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Clay Holmes actually pitched better tonight: 4.1 IP, 2 ER (4.15 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 3 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 7.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 62°F, 22% precipitation chance, 11 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 1⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.29 | 1.91 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.6% | 9.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.0% | 8.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 65.4% | 58.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 34.6% | 41.4% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Boston Red Sox pitching plan the edge over Clay Holmes (23 points on Leo's pitcher score). Alec Gamboa is projected for only 1⅔ innings, with the Boston Red Sox bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Boston Red Sox blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Clay Holmes's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Boston Red Sox, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Alec Gamboa (about 1⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 1.94 rather than Alec Gamboa's own 1.91. Whole-game, that is 1.94 for the Boston Red Sox against 3.57 on the other side, so the blended read leans Boston Red Sox.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 2.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.89 against +0.51).
| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.778 | 0.628 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.340 | 0.282 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.7% | 24.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.783 (+0.018 vs szn) | 0.655 (-0.062 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.32 (+0.079 vs szn) | 3.00 (-1.267 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.343 | 0.293 (-0.024 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.4% (-2.7% vs szn) | 23.6% (+1.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.343 wOBA to 0.293.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 88-71 | 85-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.89 | +0.51 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.24 | 4.27 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.35 | 3.76 |
| Season OPS | 0.768 | 0.719 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.797 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 4.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 6.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.2/10, Normal | 3.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.0 | 15.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.86 | 1.17 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.14 | 1.24 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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