MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at American Family Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 1.27, pitching plan 20, offense 48.92. Leo projects 57.5% against a 62.8% no-vig market number, a -5.2% model edge at -180. The starting pitcher matchup does not create a meaningful separation. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.9/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is a touch above its season form (+0.029 OPS); St. Louis Cardinals is in a cold stretch (-0.097 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Cardinals 4, Brewers 8
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Michael McGreevy (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Robert Gasser actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA) against 4.2 IP, 4 ER (7.71 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 3.1 innings (5.40 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 3.0 innings (9.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 8, 2.9 more than the 5.1 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Michael McGreevy vs Robert Gasser |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 59°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.86 | 3.92 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.26 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.2 | 8.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.8% | 14.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.5% | 22.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.8% | 7.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.6% | 38.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.4% | 61.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Robert Gasser a 2-point edge over Michael McGreevy, driven mainly by K/9 (8.5 vs 6.2) and K-BB% (14.8% vs 9.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against -0.16).
| Metric | Cardinals | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.596 | 0.771 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.269 | 0.339 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 6.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.7% | 25.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.675 (-0.019 vs szn) | 0.790 (+0.048 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.74 (+0.278 vs szn) | 6.11 (+0.963 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.300 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.347 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.5% (+2.4% vs szn) | 23.5% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.347 wOBA to 0.300. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-82 | 100-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.16 | +1.32 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.63 | 3.83 |
| Season OPS | 0.693 | 0.742 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.712 | 0.757 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Brewers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.1/10, Tired | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 6.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.4/10, Tired | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.3 | 34.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.22 | 1.85 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.09 | 0.94 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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