MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Yankees (Game 2) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 4:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Orioles vs Yankees
The case for Baltimore Orioles
The case for New York Yankees
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Orioles 3, Yankees 6
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 49.7 points — the team-strength model favored Baltimore Orioles, the run-projection model favored New York Yankees. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Ryan Yarbrough (New York Yankees), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Brandon Young: 2.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 4 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (12.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The New York Yankees bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 6.2 innings (4.05 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: the Baltimore Orioles bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 relief innings (12.00 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Brandon Young vs Ryan Yarbrough |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 1% precipitation chance, 17 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 2⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 64 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.52 | 3.69 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.8% | 9.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.0% | 8.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 39.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.8% | 60.9% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the New York Yankees pitching plan the edge over Brandon Young (9 points on Leo's pitcher score). Ryan Yarbrough is projected for only 2⅔ innings, with the New York Yankees bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the New York Yankees blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Brandon Young's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the New York Yankees, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Ryan Yarbrough (about 2⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.62 rather than Ryan Yarbrough's own 3.69. Whole-game, that is 3.62 for the New York Yankees against 3.78 on the other side, so the blended read leans New York Yankees.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.86 against -0.13).
| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.711 | 0.726 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.312 | 0.319 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 29.6% | 24.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.686 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.731 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.21 (-0.253 vs szn) | 5.10 (+0.510 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.303 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 27.6% (+2.7% vs szn) | 24.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.303. Orioles are striking out at 27.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 79-81 | 92-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.13 | +0.86 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.59 | 3.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.721 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.0% | 24.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | Not available | 0.716 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.8/10, Normal | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.2/10, Effective | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.2/10, Normal | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.0 | 21.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.37 | 3.74 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 1.57 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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