MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Yankees (Game 1) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 4:05 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Orioles vs Yankees
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Baltimore Orioles
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Orioles 10, Yankees 2
How the analysis held up
Baltimore Orioles won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Trevor Rogers (Baltimore Orioles), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Brendan Beck: 4.0 IP, 1 ER (2.25 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 7 ER (12.60 ERA). The edge held up.
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.0 relief innings (1.80 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 4.0 innings (6.75 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Baltimore Orioles scored 10, 5.9 more than the 4.1 pregame projection.
New York Yankees scored 2, 2.9 fewer than the 4.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Brendan Beck, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 12.60 ERA, and Baltimore Orioles's offense scored 5.9 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Trevor Rogers vs Brendan Beck |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 1% precipitation chance, 17 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 30 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.03 | 9.95 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.66 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.9% | 8.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.5% | 22.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.6% | 13.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 5.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 4.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.5% | 33.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.5% | 66.7% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Trevor Rogers a 38-point edge over Brendan Beck, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.01 vs 4.26) and ERA (4.03 vs 9.95).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Orioles are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.86 against -0.13).
| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.673 | 0.736 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.296 | 0.322 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 29.6% | 24.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.686 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.731 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.21 (-0.253 vs szn) | 5.10 (+0.510 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.303 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 27.6% (+2.7% vs szn) | 24.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.303. Orioles are striking out at 27.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 78-81 | 92-67 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.13 | +0.86 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.59 | 3.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.707 | 0.721 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.0% | 24.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.711 | 0.732 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.8/10, Normal | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.2/10, Effective | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.2/10, Normal | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.0 | 21.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.37 | 3.74 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 1.57 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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