MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Globe Life Field · 8:05 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Red Sox vs Rangers
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Texas Rangers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Red Sox 3, Rangers 7
How the analysis held up
Texas Rangers won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Jake Bennett (Boston Red Sox), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched MacKenzie Gore: 4.2 IP, 3 ER (5.79 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 3 ER (6.75 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (8.10 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Boston Red Sox pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Texas Rangers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 5.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Boston Red Sox scored 3, 1.5 fewer than the 4.5 pregame projection.
Texas Rangers scored 7, 2.8 more than the 4.2 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Jake Bennett, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.79 ERA, and the Texas Rangers bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 5.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Globe Life Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jake Bennett vs MacKenzie Gore |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 95°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from S. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 59 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.70 | 4.66 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.08 | 1.35 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 9.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.7% | 14.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.1% | 24.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.4% | 9.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.3% | 45.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.7% | 54.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jake Bennett a 13-point edge over MacKenzie Gore, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.6 vs 3.7) and WHIP (1.08 vs 1.35).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rangers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.54 against -0.25).
| Metric | Red Sox | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.692 | 0.745 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.308 | 0.328 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.0% | 24.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.734 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.756 (+0.039 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.25 (-0.145 vs szn) | 4.74 (+0.563 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.324 | 0.332 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.0% (-1.5% vs szn) | 22.8% |
Over the last 30 days the Rangers have been the better offense, 0.332 wOBA to 0.324. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.015 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 82-69 | 75-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.54 | -0.25 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.39 | 4.18 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.86 | 4.43 |
| Season OPS | 0.725 | 0.716 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.748 | 0.763 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Rangers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.3/10, Effective | 3.7/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.1/10, Normal | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.0 | 22.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.53 | 5.73 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.24 | 1.55 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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