MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees is a value watch, not an official pick. Leo projects 58.7% against a 55.5% no-vig market number, a 3.2% model edge at -128. Lab Rating 7.8/10: conviction 1.85, pitching plan 38.67, offense 37.38. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Effective (5.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 7.9 points from 66.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 58.7%. It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 58.7%, below the 61.0% official-pick gate. Lineup check: New York Yankees is near its season form (-0.017 OPS); Boston Red Sox is in a cold stretch (-0.121 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Red Sox 2, Yankees 9
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won, the side Leo's model favored.
Sonny Gray (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Max Fried actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA) against 4.2 IP, 2 ER (3.86 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 7 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (18.90 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Sonny Gray vs Max Fried |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 66°F, 1% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 76 | 79 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.72 | 2.80 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.1% | 16.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.7% | 7.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.6% | 50.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.4% | 49.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Max Fried a 3-point edge over Sonny Gray, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.32 vs 0.85) and WHIP (0.99 vs 1.15).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 2.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.86 against +0.48).
| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.595 | 0.703 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.269 | 0.310 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 2.2 | 4.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.2% | 25.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.670 (-0.047 vs szn) | 0.717 |
| Runs per game | 3.20 (-1.053 vs szn) | 4.88 (+0.285 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.299 (-0.019 vs szn) | 0.316 |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.0% (+2.3% vs szn) | 25.1% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.316 wOBA to 0.299. Yankees are striking out at 25.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 87-75 | 93-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.48 | +0.86 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.25 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.77 | 3.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.716 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 24.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.734 | 0.714 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.4/10, Tired | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 30.3 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.15 | 2.78 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.35 | 1.54 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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