MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Baltimore Orioles
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.6% model win probability and 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 72.6% against a 55.4% no-vig market number, a 17.3% model edge at -130. Boston Red Sox owns the starting pitcher edge by 27 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Struggling (2.1/10). Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is near its season form (+0.012 OPS); Baltimore Orioles is a touch below its season form (-0.037 OPS).
Final result
Red Sox 5, Orioles 0
How the analysis held up
Boston Red Sox won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 54.5 points — the team-strength model favored Boston Red Sox, the run-projection model favored Baltimore Orioles. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Sonny Gray (Boston Red Sox), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Chris Bassitt: 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 3 ER (4.76 ERA). The edge held up.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Baltimore Orioles scored 0, 6.1 fewer than the 6.1 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Oriole Park at Camden Yards |
| Starting pitchers | Sonny Gray vs Chris Bassitt |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 1% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.76 | 4.75 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.17 | 1.57 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.1 | 6.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.7% | 7.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.1% | 15.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.2% | 47.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Sonny Gray a 25-point edge over Chris Bassitt, driven mainly by WHIP (1.17 vs 1.57) and K-BB% (15.7% vs 7.4%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.59 against -0.19).
| Metric | Red Sox | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.742 | 0.674 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.327 | 0.296 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.8% | 23.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.769 (+0.040 vs szn) | 0.707 |
| Runs per game | 4.90 (+0.431 vs szn) | 4.31 (-0.165 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.337 (+0.016 vs szn) | 0.311 |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.3% (-2.0% vs szn) | 24.2% |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.337 wOBA to 0.311. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.016 wOBA). Orioles are striking out at 24.2% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-65 | 69-73 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.59 | -0.19 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.88 | 4.66 |
| Season OPS | 0.730 | 0.711 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.3% | 24.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.716 | 0.709 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Orioles are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.4/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.1/10, Struggling | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.9/10, High risk | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 33.3 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 8.10 | 3.18 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.68 | 1.41 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.