MLB matchup analysis
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Fenway Park · 3:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Kansas City Royals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 6.34, pitching plan 36, offense 23.1. Leo projects 67.7% against a 63.4% no-vig market number, a 4.3% model edge at -183. Boston Red Sox owns the starting pitcher edge by 10 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Effective (6.6/10). Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is near its season form (-0.019 OPS); Kansas City Royals is near its season form (-0.005 OPS).
Final result
Royals 1, Red Sox 4
How the analysis held up
Boston Red Sox won, the side Leo's model favored.
Payton Tolle (Boston Red Sox), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Noah Cameron: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Kansas City Royals bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (13.50 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Kansas City Royals scored 1, 2 fewer than the 3 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Noah Cameron vs Payton Tolle |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 68°F, 0% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 67 | 78 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.84 | 3.02 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.19 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.1 | 10.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.0% | 22.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.5% | 28.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.5% | 6.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.9% | 38.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.1% | 61.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Payton Tolle a 11-point edge over Noah Cameron, driven mainly by K-BB% (22.3% vs 14.0%) and K/9 (10.4 vs 8.1).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Royals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.59 against -0.63).
| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.712 | 0.707 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.312 | 0.312 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.3% | 22.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.757 (+0.042 vs szn) | 0.743 (+0.017 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.68 (+0.452 vs szn) | 4.31 (-0.110 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.332 (+0.017 vs szn) | 0.328 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.6% (-1.2% vs szn) | 20.7% (-0.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Royals have been the better offense, 0.332 wOBA to 0.328. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.017 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 66-83 | 81-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.63 | +0.59 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.23 | 4.42 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.85 | 3.83 |
| Season OPS | 0.717 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.8% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.699 | 0.752 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Royals and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.0/10, Normal | 4.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.1/10, Average | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 3.7/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.3 | 18.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.22 | 1.93 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.66 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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