MLB matchup analysis
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Fenway Park · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Royals vs Red Sox
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Kansas City Royals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Royals 3, Red Sox 2
How the analysis held up
Kansas City Royals won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Sonny Gray (Boston Red Sox) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Seth Lugo actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Kansas City Royals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Boston Red Sox scored 2, 2.9 fewer than the 4.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Kansas City Royals bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings), and Boston Red Sox's offense scored 2.9 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Seth Lugo vs Sonny Gray |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 68°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 53 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.99 | 2.78 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.9 | 8.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.3% | 15.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.8% | 22.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 49.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.8% | 50.2% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Sonny Gray a 22-point edge over Seth Lugo, driven mainly by ERA (2.78 vs 4.99) and WHIP (1.16 vs 1.45).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Royals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.55 against -0.59).
| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.766 | 0.696 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.336 | 0.308 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.8% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.766 (+0.047 vs szn) | 0.741 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.85 (+0.582 vs szn) | 4.38 (-0.040 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.336 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.327 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.8% (-1.9% vs szn) | 20.4% (-1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Royals have been the better offense, 0.336 wOBA to 0.327. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 65-82 | 80-67 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.59 | +0.55 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.27 | 4.42 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.86 | 3.87 |
| Season OPS | 0.718 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.7% | 21.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.725 | 0.717 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Royals and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Royals | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.4/10, Tired | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 6.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.7/10, Tired | 4.5/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 17.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.75 | 2.04 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.79 | 1.02 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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