MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Fenway Park · 6:45 PM ET
Leo prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox is a value watch, not an official pick. Leo projects 73.0% against a 65.9% no-vig market number, a 7.1% model edge at -210. Lab Rating 8.1/10: conviction 8.99, pitching plan 33.33, offense 38.63. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Average (5.2/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.1 points from 96.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.0%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is a touch below its season form (-0.044 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is in a cold stretch (-0.053 OPS).
Final result
Angels 6, Red Sox 4
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Angels won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Jake Bennett (Boston Red Sox) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Ryan Johnson actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA) against 5.1 IP, 6 ER (10.13 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: Jake Bennett, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 10.13 ERA.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Ryan Johnson vs Jake Bennett |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 46% precipitation chance, 12 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 52 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.12 | 3.69 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 6.6% | 15.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.4% | 19.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.7% | 4.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.3% | 45.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.7% | 55.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jake Bennett a 20-point edge over Ryan Johnson, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.6 vs 4.2) and HR/9 (1.03 vs 1.92).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.56 against -0.50).
| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.626 | 0.682 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.283 | 0.304 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.3% | 22.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.649 (-0.033 vs szn) | 0.741 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.82 (-0.227 vs szn) | 4.30 (-0.135 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.290 (-0.013 vs szn) | 0.327 (+0.006 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.0% | 20.1% (-1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.327 wOBA to 0.290. Angels are striking out at 25.0% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 55-90 | 80-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.50 | +0.56 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.05 | 4.44 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.55 | 3.88 |
| Season OPS | 0.679 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.3% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.686 | 0.716 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.4/10, Normal | 5.7/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.1/10, Average | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.4/10, Normal | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 15.0 | 22.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.60 | 4.09 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.47 | 1.23 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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