MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 3:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Boston Red Sox
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.5% model win probability and 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 72.5% against a 51.9% no-vig market number, a 20.6% model edge at -113. Chicago Cubs owns the starting pitcher edge by 22 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Average (5.2/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.5%. Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is in a cold stretch (-0.054 OPS); Boston Red Sox is in a cold stretch (-0.090 OPS).
Final result
Cubs 6, Red Sox 2
How the analysis held up
Chicago Cubs won, the side Leo's model favored.
Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP, 1 ER (9.00 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 3 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 8.0 relief innings (1.13 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Shota Imanaga vs Tanner Houck |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 58°F, 49% precipitation chance, 13 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 3 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 38 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.77 | 9.00 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.0 | 3.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.4% | 7.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.6% | 7.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 6.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.3% | 75.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.7% | 25.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Shota Imanaga a 34-point edge over Tanner Houck, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.81 vs 6.00) and ERA (3.77 vs 9.00).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 2.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.91 against +0.48).
| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.711 | 0.627 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.314 | 0.282 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.6% | 24.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.806 (+0.039 vs szn) | 0.659 (-0.057 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.54 (+0.289 vs szn) | 3.07 (-1.184 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.352 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.294 (-0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.9% (-3.1% vs szn) | 23.9% (+2.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.352 wOBA to 0.294. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 88-73 | 87-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.91 | +0.48 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.25 | 4.25 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.34 | 3.77 |
| Season OPS | 0.765 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.756 | 0.733 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.2/10, Average | 7.2/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.2/10, Normal | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.0 | 25.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 1 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.09 | 1.42 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 0.95 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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