MLB teams · NL Central · 2026 season
Pittsburgh Pirates 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 62 Pittsburgh Pirates games with a final result between July 10 and September 27, 2026. The Pirates went 31-31 in them. Leo gave the Pirates better than an even chance in 23 of those games, and they won 14. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 17 of 39. Leo's average win chance for the Pirates was 49.5%. The side Leo favored won 36 of the 62 games where Leo favored a side.
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Pirates record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Pirates on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 14 | 6-8 | 48% |
| Bubba Chandler | 13 | 7-6 | 39% |
| Paul Skenes | 11 | 6-5 | 54% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | 9 | 6-3 | 54% |
| Lake Bachar | 6 | 4-2 | 61% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Pirates, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Pirates result is whether the Pirates won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Pirates) | Leo favored | Pirates result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | at Tigers | 59% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Sep 26 | at Tigers | 45% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 25 | at Tigers | 38% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 23 | vs Cardinals | 68% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | vs Cardinals | 54% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Sep 20 | vs Royals | 45% | Royals | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 19 | vs Royals | 37% | Royals | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 18 | vs Royals | 54% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Sep 16 | vs Brewers | 30% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 13 | at Cubs | 38% | Cubs | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 12 | at Cubs | 43% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Sep 11 | at Cubs | 30% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Sep 10 | at White Sox | 31% | White Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 9 | at White Sox | 69% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Sep 8 | at White Sox | 29% | White Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 6 | vs Angels | 49.6% | Angels | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 5 | vs Angels | 73% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 4 | vs Angels | 68% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Sep 2 | vs Giants | 48% | Giants | Lost | Right |
| Sep 1 | vs Giants | 54% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Cardinals | 73% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Aug 29 | at Cardinals | 65% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Cardinals | 73% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 26 | at Padres | 43% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Aug 25 | at Padres | 47% | Padres | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 24 | at Padres | 56% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Aug 23 | at Dodgers | 50.5% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 22 | at Dodgers | 26% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 21 | at Dodgers | 26% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 19 | vs Tigers | 74% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Aug 18 | vs Tigers | 41% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 17 | vs Tigers | 52% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 16 | vs Red Sox | 68% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Aug 15 | vs Red Sox | 47% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 14 | vs Red Sox | 46% | Red Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 13 | at Marlins | 41% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | at Marlins | 44% | Marlins | Lost | Right |
| Aug 11 | at Marlins | 46% | Marlins | Lost | Right |
| Aug 9 | vs Mets | 49.9% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 8 | vs Mets | 46% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 7 | vs Mets | 47% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 6 | at Brewers | 40% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 5 | at Brewers | 41% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 4 | at Brewers | 34% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 3 | at Brewers | 32% | Brewers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 2 | at Reds | 61% | Pirates | No result | |
| Aug 1 | at Reds | 68% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Jul 31 | at Reds | 69% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 30 | at Reds | 86% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 29 | vs Diamondbacks | 48% | Diamondbacks | Lost | Right |
| Jul 28 | vs Diamondbacks | 46% | Diamondbacks | Lost | Right |
| Jul 27 | vs Diamondbacks | 57% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Jul 26 | vs Cubs | 48% | Cubs | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 25 | vs Cubs | 57% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 24 | vs Cubs | 50.0% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Jul 22 | at Yankees | 39% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | at Yankees | 47% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Yankees | 40% | Yankees | No result | |
| Jul 20 | at Yankees | 49% | Yankees | No result | |
| Jul 19 | at Guardians | 55% | Pirates | Won | Right |
| Jul 18 | at Guardians | 52% | Pirates | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 18 | at Guardians | 49% | Guardians | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 17 | at Guardians | 49% | Guardians | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 12 | vs Brewers | 48% | Brewers | No result | |
| Jul 11 | vs Brewers | 31% | Brewers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 11 | vs Brewers | 40% | Brewers | No result | |
| Jul 10 | vs Brewers | 49% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 9 | vs Braves | 49% | Braves | No result | |
| Jul 7 | vs Braves | 54% | Pirates | No result |
More from the NL Central
Chicago Cubs · Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers · St. Louis Cardinals
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