MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at PNC Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Pittsburgh Pirates is a value watch, not an official pick. Leo projects 73.0% against a 63.6% no-vig market number, a 9.4% model edge at -185. Lab Rating 7.5/10: conviction 9.01, pitching plan 30.67, offense 35.04. Pittsburgh Pirates's pen efficiency: Effective (5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.3 points from 96.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.0%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Pittsburgh Pirates is in a cold stretch (-0.108 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is in a cold stretch (-0.096 OPS).
Final result
Angels 6, Pirates 1
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Angels won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Braxton Ashcraft (Pittsburgh Pirates) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Yusei Kikuchi actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 4.0 innings (6.75 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Braxton Ashcraft, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.40 ERA.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Yusei Kikuchi vs Braxton Ashcraft |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 3% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 6 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.06 | 3.65 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.50 | 1.09 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.0 | 9.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.6% | 20.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.5% | 25.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.9% | 5.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.0% | 55.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.0% | 45.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Braxton Ashcraft a 23-point edge over Yusei Kikuchi, driven mainly by WHIP (1.09 vs 1.50) and BB/9 (1.9 vs 3.6).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 1-9 in their last 10 and averaging 3.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Pirates carry the better run differential per game (+0.17 against -0.54).
| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 1-9 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.581 | 0.625 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.261 | 0.284 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 27.3% | 27.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.621 (-0.057 vs szn) | 0.673 (-0.060 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.71 (-0.349 vs szn) | 3.96 (-0.883 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.279 (-0.023 vs szn) | 0.302 (-0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.3% | 25.2% (+0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.302 wOBA to 0.279. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.023 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 25.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 53-88 | 70-72 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.54 | +0.17 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.06 | 4.85 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.60 | 4.67 |
| Season OPS | 0.677 | 0.733 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.3% | 24.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.678 | 0.683 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.4/10, Normal | 8.7/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 2.7/10, Struggling | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.6/10, Normal | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.0 | 29.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.35 | 3.64 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.94 | 1.08 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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