MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at PNC Park · 1:35 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Angels vs Pirates
The case for Los Angeles Angels
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Angels 0, Pirates 1
How the analysis held up
Pittsburgh Pirates won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Paul Skenes (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Walbert Ureña: 5.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 8.0 IP, 1 ER (1.13 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.2 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Walbert Ureña vs Paul Skenes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 71°F, 0% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.74 | 3.83 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.7% | 21.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.5% | 28.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.8% | 7.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 57.1% | 44.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 42.9% | 55.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Walbert Ureña a 1-point edge over Paul Skenes, driven mainly by ERA (2.74 vs 3.83) and HR/9 (0.62 vs 0.87).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Pirates carry the better run differential per game (+0.18 against -0.54).
| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.620 | 0.631 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.276 | 0.287 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.4% | 26.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.610 (-0.067 vs szn) | 0.665 (-0.066 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.57 (-0.436 vs szn) | 3.93 (-0.894 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.274 (-0.027 vs szn) | 0.299 (-0.026 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.1% | 24.9% (+0.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.299 wOBA to 0.274. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.026 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 25.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 54-88 | 70-73 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.54 | +0.18 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.03 | 4.82 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.57 | 4.64 |
| Season OPS | 0.678 | 0.733 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.2% | 24.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.679 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 7.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.5/10, Struggling | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.6/10, Tired | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 15.0 | 27.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 2.00 | 1.22 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.4 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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