MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Comerica Park · 1:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Pirates vs Tigers
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Pirates 3, Tigers 4
How the analysis held up
Detroit Tigers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 34.3 points — the team-strength model favored Detroit Tigers, the run-projection model favored Pittsburgh Pirates. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Kirby Yates (Pittsburgh Pirates), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Justin Verlander: 1.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.1 IP, 2 ER (3.38 ERA). The edge held up.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 7.0 innings (5.14 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 3, 2.1 fewer than the 5.1 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Kirby Yates vs Justin Verlander |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 61°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 33 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.19 | 7.00 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 1.56 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.4 | 7.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 18.0% | 10.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.5% | 17.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.6% | 7.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.1% | 16.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 64.9% | 83.3% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan the edge over Justin Verlander (29 points on Leo's pitcher score). Kirby Yates is projected for only 1⅔ innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Justin Verlander's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Kirby Yates (about 1⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.39 rather than Kirby Yates's own 3.19. Whole-game, that is 3.92 for the Detroit Tigers against 4.39 on the other side, so the blended read leans Detroit Tigers.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Tigers are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.16 against +0.45).
| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.744 | 0.836 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.330 | 0.369 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 20.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.741 (+0.007 vs szn) | 0.741 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.08 (-0.662 vs szn) | 4.61 (+0.129 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.329 | 0.329 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.2% (-1.8% vs szn) | 24.1% (+1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.329 wOBA to 0.329. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA). Tigers are striking out at 24.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-79 | 75-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.16 | +0.45 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.74 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.58 | 4.02 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.0% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.749 | 0.726 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.7/10, Effective | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.6/10, Tired | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 33.0 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.00 | 5.16 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.30 | 1.19 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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