MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at Comerica Park · 3:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Pirates vs Tigers
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for Detroit Tigers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Pirates 4, Tigers 2
How the analysis held up
Pittsburgh Pirates won, the side Leo's model favored.
River Ryan (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Jared Jones actually pitched better tonight: 4.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 1.1 IP, 2 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 5.0 innings (3.60 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jared Jones vs River Ryan |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 66°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5 | 2 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 46 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.72 | 4.15 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.08 | 1.85 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.9 | 12.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.2% | 14.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 6.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.0% | 28.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.0% | 71.4% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Jared Jones the edge over the Detroit Tigers pitching plan (2 points on Leo's pitcher score). River Ryan is projected for only 2 innings, with the Detroit Tigers bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Jared Jones's own line against the Detroit Tigers blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Detroit Tigers, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than River Ryan (about 2 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.80 rather than River Ryan's own 4.15. Whole-game, that is 3.40 for the Pittsburgh Pirates against 3.80 on the other side, so the blended read leans Pittsburgh Pirates.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Tigers are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.17 against +0.44).
| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.758 | 0.834 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.335 | 0.368 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.0 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.1% | 21.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.736 | 0.733 (+0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.07 (-0.660 vs szn) | 4.52 (+0.054 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.327 | 0.326 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.4% (-1.6% vs szn) | 24.6% (+1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.327 wOBA to 0.326. Tigers are striking out at 24.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-80 | 76-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.17 | +0.44 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.73 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.56 | 4.02 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.722 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.751 | 0.725 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 9.8/10, High risk | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 36.7 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.19 | 5.18 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.36 | 1.23 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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