MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 10, 2026 at Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Chicago White Sox moneyline
The case for Chicago White Sox
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago White Sox remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.1/10: conviction 7.11, pitching plan 36, offense 28.33. Leo projects 69.2% against a 51.3% no-vig market number, a 17.9% model edge at -112. Chicago White Sox owns the starting pitcher edge by 14 points. Bullpen read: Both bullpens stressed. Chicago White Sox's pen efficiency: Average (5.2/10). Pitching plan: Hagen Smith 4.5 IP + remaining bullpen 4.5 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Chicago White Sox is a touch below its season form (-0.026 OPS); Pittsburgh Pirates is near its season form (-0.018 OPS).
Final result
Pirates 2, White Sox 0
How the analysis held up
Pittsburgh Pirates won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 41.4 points — the team-strength model favored Chicago White Sox, the run-projection model favored Pittsburgh Pirates. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Hagen Smith (Chicago White Sox), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jared Jones: 2.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 7.0 innings (2.57 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 2, 1.7 fewer than the 3.7 pregame projection.
Chicago White Sox scored 0, 3.5 fewer than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 2.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jared Jones vs Hagen Smith |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 2 |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 78 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.30 | 0.50 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.7 | 13.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.8% | 22.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.3% | 37.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.5% | 14.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 5.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.1% | 44.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.9% | 55.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Hagen Smith a 13-point edge over Jared Jones, driven mainly by ERA (0.50 vs 4.30) and HR/9 (0.50 vs 1.32).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; White Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.24 against +0.27).
| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.716 | 0.700 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.322 | 0.313 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.2% | 24.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.673 (-0.061 vs szn) | 0.726 |
| Runs per game | 3.96 (-0.860 vs szn) | 4.41 (-0.278 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.301 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.8% | 24.4% |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.301. White Sox are striking out at 24.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-73 | 75-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.24 | +0.27 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.82 | 4.69 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.58 | 4.42 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.685 | 0.722 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.8/10, High risk | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.0/10, Tired | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.3 | 34.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.45 | 3.89 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.95 | 1.30 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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