MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at PNC Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 70.4% model win probability and 9.8/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 70.4% against a 54.1% no-vig market number, a 16.3% model edge at -125. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 16 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Below average (3.8/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is swinging a hot bat (+0.118 OPS); Pittsburgh Pirates is a touch below its season form (-0.023 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Brewers 5, Pirates 4
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jared Jones: 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.0 innings (2.25 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 5, 2.4 fewer than the 7.4 pregame projection.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 4, 1.5 more than the 2.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 10% precipitation chance, 1 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 83 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.51 | 4.17 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 26.1% | 20.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 30.7% | 28.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.4% | 38.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 63.6% | 61.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Logan Henderson a 16-point edge over Jared Jones, driven mainly by WHIP (0.81 vs 1.19) and BB/9 (1.5 vs 3.1).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 7.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.14).
| Metric | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.866 | 0.708 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.376 | 0.318 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 7.5 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.3% | 19.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.834 (+0.087 vs szn) | 0.671 (-0.061 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 6.67 (+1.510 vs szn) | 3.46 (-1.264 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.365 (+0.035 vs szn) | 0.301 (-0.024 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.1% (-0.5% vs szn) | 23.8% |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.365 wOBA to 0.301. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.035 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 94-57 | 75-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.32 | +0.14 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.18 | 4.76 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.87 | 4.62 |
| Season OPS | 0.748 | 0.731 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 24.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.765 | 0.751 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Brewers and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.8/10, Below average | 3.7/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 7.7/10, Tired | 8.8/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 32.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.75 | 5.79 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.48 | 1.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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