MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at PNC Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Cardinals vs Pirates
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Cardinals 5, Pirates 1
How the analysis held up
St. Louis Cardinals won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Lake Bachar (Pittsburgh Pirates), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Matthew Liberatore: 1.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 1 ER (1.59 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 7.1 innings (6.14 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
St. Louis Cardinals scored 5, 1.5 more than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 1, 3.4 fewer than the 4.4 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.1 innings), unflagged pregame, and the opposing starter (1.59 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Matthew Liberatore vs Lake Bachar |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 60°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5 | 2 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 53 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.23 | 3.49 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.47 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.8% | 25.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.2% | 10.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.4% | 45.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.6% | 54.4% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan the edge over Matthew Liberatore (9 points on Leo's pitcher score). Lake Bachar is projected for only 2 innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Matthew Liberatore's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Lake Bachar (about 2 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.37 rather than Lake Bachar's own 3.49. Whole-game, that is 4.37 for the Pittsburgh Pirates against 4.54 on the other side, so the blended read leans Pittsburgh Pirates.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.13 against +0.17).
| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.589 | 0.797 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.267 | 0.351 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.8% | 19.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.676 (-0.019 vs szn) | 0.722 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.77 (+0.304 vs szn) | 3.77 (-0.960 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.300 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.8% (+1.8% vs szn) | 22.1% (-1.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.300.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 76-81 | 80-77 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.13 | +0.17 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.49 | 4.75 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.62 | 4.58 |
| Season OPS | 0.694 | 0.736 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.0% | 24.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.687 | 0.700 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 7.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.6/10, Effective | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.5/10, Normal | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.0 | 32.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.43 | 3.09 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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