MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Pirates vs White Sox
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Pirates 4, White Sox 2
How the analysis held up
Pittsburgh Pirates won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 39.8 points — the team-strength model favored Pittsburgh Pirates, the run-projection model favored Chicago White Sox. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Lake Bachar (Pittsburgh Pirates), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Davis Martin: 1.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 4.0 innings (6.75 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Chicago White Sox scored 2, 1.5 fewer than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Lake Bachar vs Davis Martin |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 1% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 2⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 70 | 63 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.52 | 4.02 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.31 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.4 | 7.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.4% | 12.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.5% | 20.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.2% | 7.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.0% | 47.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.0% | 52.4% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan the edge over Davis Martin (14 points on Leo's pitcher score). Lake Bachar is projected for only 2⅓ innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Davis Martin's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Lake Bachar (about 2⅓ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.45 rather than Lake Bachar's own 3.52. Whole-game, that is 3.45 for the Pittsburgh Pirates against 3.47 on the other side, so the blended read leans Pittsburgh Pirates.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; White Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.23 against +0.28).
| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.706 | 0.725 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.317 | 0.323 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.8% | 24.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.675 (-0.059 vs szn) | 0.740 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.04 (-0.804 vs szn) | 4.57 (-0.153 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.303 (-0.023 vs szn) | 0.328 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.0% | 24.1% |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.328 wOBA to 0.303. White Sox are striking out at 24.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-73 | 75-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.23 | +0.28 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.84 | 4.72 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.61 | 4.44 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.725 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.2% | 24.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.757 | 0.720 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 9.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 5.3/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.9/10, Normal | 9.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 33.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.49 | 3.82 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.79 | 1.27 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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