MLB teams · AL West · 2026 season
Houston Astros 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 65 Houston Astros games with a final result between July 10 and September 30, 2026. The Astros went 32-33 in them. Leo gave the Astros better than an even chance in 31 of those games, and they won 17. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 15 of 34. Leo's average win chance for the Astros was 51%. The side Leo favored won 36 of the 65 games where Leo favored a side. Of these, 1 was a postseason game (0-1).
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Astros record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Astros on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 14 | 4-10 | 52% |
| Peter Lambert | 14 | 7-7 | 56% |
| Hayden Wesneski | 11 | 8-3 | 53% |
| Cristian Javier | 8 | 2-6 | 51% |
| Ethan Pecko | 5 | 3-2 | 37% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Astros, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Astros result is whether the Astros won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Astros) | Leo favored | Astros result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 post | vs White Sox | 46% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Sep 27 | at Athletics | 74% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 26 | at Athletics | 73% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 25 | at Athletics | 74% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 24 | at Athletics | 73% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 23 | at Mariners | 55% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | at Mariners | 27% | Mariners | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 20 | vs Braves | 43% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Sep 19 | vs Braves | 48% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Sep 18 | vs Braves | 48% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Sep 17 | vs Royals | 67% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 16 | vs Royals | 27% | Royals | Lost | Right |
| Sep 13 | at Rays | 68% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 12 | at Rays | 44% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 11 | at Rays | 37% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 9 | at Phillies | 32% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Sep 8 | at Phillies | 71% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 6 | vs Diamondbacks | 39% | Diamondbacks | Lost | Right |
| Sep 5 | vs Diamondbacks | 27% | Diamondbacks | Lost | Right |
| Sep 4 | vs Diamondbacks | 49% | Diamondbacks | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 3 | vs White Sox | 69% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 2 | vs White Sox | 51% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Sep 1 | vs White Sox | 27% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 31 | vs White Sox | 59% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Mets | 28% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 29 | at Mets | 28% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Mets | 46% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 27 | at Yankees | 27% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 26 | at Yankees | 72% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 25 | at Yankees | 49% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 23 | vs Athletics | 72% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 22 | vs Athletics | 72% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 21 | vs Athletics | 26% | Athletics | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 20 | vs Angels | 74% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 19 | vs Angels | 26% | Angels | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 18 | vs Angels | 66% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 16 | vs Mariners | 33% | Mariners | Lost | Right |
| Aug 15 | vs Mariners | 54% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 14 | vs Mariners | 53% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Aug 12 | at Giants | 56% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Aug 11 | at Giants | 59% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 10 | at Giants | 54% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Aug 9 | at Padres | 51% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 8 | at Padres | 52% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 7 | at Padres | 48% | Padres | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 5 | vs Blue Jays | 70% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 4 | vs Blue Jays | 61% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Aug 3 | vs Blue Jays | 66% | Astros | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 2 | vs Rangers | 76% | Astros | No result | |
| Aug 1 | vs Rangers | 72% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Jul 31 | vs Rangers | 62% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Jul 29 | at Angels | 54% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Jul 28 | at Angels | 53% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Jul 27 | at Angels | 48% | Angels | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | at White Sox | 49.8% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 25 | at White Sox | 35% | White Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 24 | at White Sox | 32% | White Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | vs Marlins | 55% | Astros | Won | Right |
| Jul 21 | vs Marlins | 38% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 20 | vs Marlins | 47% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 19 | vs Orioles | 43% | Orioles | Lost | Right |
| Jul 18 | vs Orioles | 44% | Orioles | Lost | Right |
| Jul 17 | vs Orioles | 49% | Orioles | Lost | Right |
| Jul 12 | at Rangers | 47% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 11 | at Rangers | 42% | Rangers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 10 | at Rangers | 41% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 7 | at Nationals | 27% | Nationals | No result |
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