MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Athletics Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at Sutter Health Park · 3:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: Houston Astros moneyline
The case for Houston Astros
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Houston Astros remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 9.38, pitching plan 21.33, offense 33.92. Leo projects 73.8% against a 63.5% no-vig market number, a 10.2% model edge at -185. Houston Astros owns the starting pitcher edge by 29 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Houston Astros's pen efficiency: Effective (5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.8%. Lineup check: Houston Astros is swinging a hot bat (+0.082 OPS); Athletics is near its season form (-0.018 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Astros 9, Athletics 0
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won, the side Leo's model favored.
Peter Lambert (Houston Astros), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Seth Johnson: 2.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 1.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 7.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Athletics bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 9 earned runs over 7.1 innings (11.05 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Athletics |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Sutter Health Park |
| Starting pitchers | Peter Lambert vs Seth Johnson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 1⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 39 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.82 | 5.88 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.25 | 1.69 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.3% | 12.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.2% | 25.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.9% | 12.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 5.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.0% | 45.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.0% | 54.2% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Peter Lambert a 27-point edge over Seth Johnson, driven mainly by expected innings (5.4 vs 1.7) and BB/9 (3.4 vs 5.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Athletics are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Astros carry the better run differential per game (-0.20 against -1.47).
| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.813 | 0.703 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.350 | 0.311 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.3% | 21.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.753 (+0.021 vs szn) | 0.710 (-0.009 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.32 (-0.209 vs szn) | 4.07 (-0.243 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.327 (+0.006 vs szn) | 0.315 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.2% (+1.3% vs szn) | 21.7% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.327 wOBA to 0.315.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 80-81 | 64-97 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.20 | -1.47 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.53 | 4.31 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.73 | 5.78 |
| Season OPS | 0.731 | 0.721 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.738 | 0.720 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Athletics are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.7/10, Tired | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.7/10, Effective | 2.0/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.4/10, Tired | 8.5/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 30.7 | 25.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.23 | 7.36 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 2.06 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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