MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Seattle Mariners moneyline
The case for Seattle Mariners
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Seattle Mariners remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.1/10: conviction 8.8, pitching plan 30.67, offense 32.02. Leo projects 72.6% against a 55.2% no-vig market number, a 17.4% model edge at -128. Seattle Mariners owns the starting pitcher edge by 24 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Seattle Mariners's pen efficiency: Average (5.1/10). Pitching plan: Cristian Javier 4.3 IP + remaining bullpen 4.7 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Seattle Mariners is swinging a hot bat (+0.090 OPS); Houston Astros is near its season form (+0.015 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Astros 7, Mariners 0
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Cristian Javier actually pitched better tonight: 2.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 4 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 7.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Houston Astros scored 7, 4.1 more than the 2.9 pregame projection.
Seattle Mariners scored 0, 5.2 fewer than the 5.2 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Logan Gilbert, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 9.00 ERA, and the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Cristian Javier vs Logan Gilbert |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 64°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from S. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 6 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 49 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.31 | 3.69 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.46 | 1.06 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.4 | 9.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.6% | 20.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.3% | 27.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.7% | 6.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 26.9% | 42.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 73.1% | 57.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Logan Gilbert a 24-point edge over Cristian Javier, driven mainly by expected innings (5.9 vs 4.3) and K-BB% (20.8% vs 11.6%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.33 against -0.40).
| Metric | Astros | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.738 | 0.782 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.321 | 0.340 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.4 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.1% | 20.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.717 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.718 (+0.027 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.89 (-0.538 vs szn) | 4.56 (+0.517 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.312 | 0.318 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.8% (+1.0% vs szn) | 23.4% |
Over the last 30 days the Mariners have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.312. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-79 | 73-83 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.33 | -0.40 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.43 | 4.04 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.76 | 4.44 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.692 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 23.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.727 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.9/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.2/10, Below average | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.3/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.0 | 15.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.79 | 3.60 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 1.47 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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