MLB teams · AL West · 2026 season
Seattle Mariners 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 66 Seattle Mariners games with a final result between July 10 and September 27, 2026. The Mariners went 28-38 in them. Leo gave the Mariners better than an even chance in 39 of those games, and they won 17. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 11 of 27. Leo's average win chance for the Mariners was 55%. The side Leo favored won 33 of the 66 games where Leo favored a side.
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Mariners record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Mariners on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 14 | 8-6 | 56% |
| Bryce Miller | 12 | 1-11 | 54% |
| Bryan Woo | 12 | 7-5 | 61% |
| George Kirby | 10 | 4-6 | 56% |
| Emerson Hancock | 8 | 3-5 | 55% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Mariners, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Mariners result is whether the Mariners won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Mariners) | Leo favored | Mariners result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | vs Angels | 73% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 26 | vs Angels | 60% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 25 | vs Angels | 36% | Angels | Lost | Right |
| Sep 24 | vs Angels | 73% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 23 | vs Astros | 45% | Astros | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | vs Astros | 73% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 20 | at Rockies | 50.3% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 19 | at Rockies | 74% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 18 | at Rockies | 74% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 16 | at Angels | 66% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 15 | at Angels | 73% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 14 | at Angels | 28% | Angels | Lost | Right |
| Sep 13 | at Athletics | 70% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 12 | at Athletics | 73% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 11 | at Athletics | 72% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 10 | vs Rangers | 51% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 9 | vs Rangers | 38% | Rangers | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 8 | vs Rangers | 36% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 6 | vs Athletics | 71% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 5 | vs Athletics | 71% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 4 | vs Athletics | 72% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 3 | vs Athletics | 62% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 2 | at Red Sox | 72% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Sep 1 | at Red Sox | 72% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Aug 31 | at Red Sox | 31% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Blue Jays | 73% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 29 | at Blue Jays | 34% | Blue Jays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Blue Jays | 39% | Blue Jays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 26 | vs Phillies | 42% | Phillies | Lost | Right |
| Aug 25 | vs Phillies | 61% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Aug 24 | vs Phillies | 41% | Phillies | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 23 | vs Cubs | 52% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 22 | vs Cubs | 51% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Aug 21 | vs Cubs | 68% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Aug 20 | at Brewers | 55% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 19 | at Brewers | 69% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Aug 18 | at Brewers | 52% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 16 | at Astros | 67% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Aug 15 | at Astros | 46% | Astros | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 14 | at Astros | 47% | Astros | Lost | Right |
| Aug 13 | at Yankees | 37% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | at Yankees | 39% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Aug 11 | at Yankees | 42% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Aug 9 | vs Rays | 44% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 8 | vs Rays | 46% | Rays | No result | |
| Aug 7 | vs Rays | 46% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 6 | vs Tigers | 50.4% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 5 | vs Tigers | 49% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 4 | vs Tigers | 49% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 2 | vs Twins | 49% | Twins | No result | |
| Aug 1 | vs Twins | 27% | Twins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 31 | vs Twins | 45% | Twins | Lost | Right |
| Jul 30 | at Dodgers | 68% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 29 | at Dodgers | 87% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 28 | at Dodgers | 31% | Dodgers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 27 | at Rangers | 58% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | at Rangers | 45% | Rangers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 25 | at Rangers | 54% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 24 | at Rangers | 51% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | vs Reds | 66% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 21 | vs Reds | 52% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 20 | vs Reds | 58% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Jul 19 | vs Giants | 57% | Mariners | Won | Right |
| Jul 18 | vs Giants | 50.0% | Giants | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 17 | vs Giants | 65% | Mariners | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 12 | at Rays | 43% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 11 | at Rays | 44% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Jul 10 | at Rays | 33% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Jul 9 | at Marlins | 51% | Mariners | No result | |
| Jul 7 | at Marlins | 37% | Marlins | No result |
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The 2027 season starts March 25, 2027. Until then, see all 30 teams, every MLB game page and Leo’s NFL and NBA cards.