MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Daikin Park · 5:00 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on White Sox vs Astros
The case for Chicago White Sox
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
White Sox 7, Astros 3
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won, the side Leo's model favored.
Hunter Brown (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Sean Burke actually pitched better tonight: 4.0 IP, 3 ER (6.75 ERA) against 0.2 IP, 3 ER (40.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 5.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Houston Astros pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Chicago White Sox scored 7, 3.8 more than the 3.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 5:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Daikin Park |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Burke vs Hunter Brown |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 82°F, 1% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.34 | 3.19 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.7 | 10.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.2% | 15.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.8% | 27.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.7% | 12.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.1% | 62.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 61.9% | 37.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Sean Burke a 1-point edge over Hunter Brown, driven mainly by BB/9 (3.2 vs 4.6) and K-BB% (17.2% vs 15.3%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season White Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.35 against -0.20).
| Metric | White Sox | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.775 | 0.856 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.340 | 0.368 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.2 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.5% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.715 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.771 (+0.039 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.77 (-0.021 vs szn) | 4.40 (-0.131 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 | 0.334 (+0.013 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.9% (+1.7% vs szn) | 23.5% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.334 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.013 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 25.9% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-78 | 81-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.35 | -0.20 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.79 | 4.53 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.44 | 4.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.726 | 0.732 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 21.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.716 | 0.739 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Astros are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.1/10, Tired | 9.4/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.3/10, Average | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.0/10, Tired | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 33.7 | 35.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.01 | 3.03 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.16 | 1.29 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.6 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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